All Week 8 Picks
Arizona State +8 vs. Oregon
Tennessee +20.5 vs. Alabama
Florida -3.5 vs. South Carolina
Kansas State +2.5 vs. West Virginia
Notre Dame -13.5 vs. BYU
Texas A&M +3.5 vs. LSU
Oregon State -10.5 vs. Utah
Kansas +35 vs. Oklahoma
Colorado +40 vs. USC
Kentucky +27.5 vs. Georgia
Middle Tennessee State +19.5 vs. Mississippi State
Miami +20.5 vs. Florida State
Rutgers -5.5 vs. Temple
Louisville -6.5 vs. South Florida
Texas Tech +1.5 vs. TCU
Clemson -8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
Stanford +2.5 vs. California
Toledo +7 vs. Cincinnati
Boise State -28 vs. UNLV
Iowa State +14 vs. Oklahoma State
Baylor +10 vs. Texas
Top 5 Picks
Iowa State +14
Louisville -6.5
Miami +20.5
Oregon State -10.5
Notre Dame -13.5
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Sunday, October 14, 2012
Prediction Results
Couldn't have asked for much more than to go undefeated in my top 5 picks against the spread in the first week. I'm sure we'll see some regression to the mean next weekend, but it's a promising start.
Week 7 All Games: 9-7-0
Total All Games: 9-7-0
Week 7 Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0
Total Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0
Week 7 All Games: 9-7-0
Total All Games: 9-7-0
Week 7 Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0
Total Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0
2012 HRS Week 7 Rankings
| Rank | Team | W | L | HRS Avg. |
| 1 | Alabama | 6 | 0 | .5490 |
| 2 | Florida | 6 | 0 | .4660 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | 6 | 0 | .4526 |
| 4 | Oregon State | 5 | 0 | .3901 |
| 5 | South Carolina | 6 | 1 | .3745 |
| 6 | Texas Tech | 5 | 1 | .3624 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 4 | 1 | .3561 |
| 8 | Kansas State | 6 | 0 | .3551 |
| 9 | Oregon | 6 | 0 | .3318 |
| 10 | Ohio State | 7 | 0 | .3187 |
| 11 | Texas A&M | 5 | 1 | .3178 |
| 12 | USC | 5 | 1 | .2775 |
| 13 | Stanford | 4 | 2 | .2717 |
| 14 | LSU | 6 | 1 | .2590 |
| 15 | Georgia | 5 | 1 | .2536 |
| 16 | Iowa State | 4 | 2 | .2346 |
| 17 | Boise State | 5 | 1 | .2225 |
| 18 | Texas | 4 | 2 | .2190 |
| 19 | West Virginia | 5 | 1 | .2094 |
| 20 | Michigan | 4 | 2 | .1972 |
| 21 | Mississippi State | 6 | 0 | .1815 |
| 22 | Rutgers | 6 | 0 | .1809 |
| 23 | Louisiana Tech | 5 | 1 | .1723 |
| 24 | Arizona State | 5 | 1 | .1711 |
| 25 | Florida State | 6 | 1 | .1710 |
| 26 | Western Kentucky | 5 | 1 | .1646 |
| 27 | Cincinnati | 5 | 0 | .1559 |
| 28 | UCLA | 5 | 2 | .1465 |
| 29 | TCU | 5 | 1 | .1440 |
| 30 | Louisville | 6 | 0 | .1400 |
| 31 | North Carolina | 5 | 2 | .1364 |
| 32 | Penn State | 4 | 2 | .1324 |
| 33 | Clemson | 5 | 1 | .1226 |
| 34 | Michigan State | 4 | 3 | .1157 |
| 35 | Nebraska | 4 | 2 | .1139 |
| 36 | Northwestern | 6 | 1 | .1123 |
| 37 | Wisconsin | 5 | 2 | .1117 |
| 38 | Louisiana-Monroe | 4 | 2 | .1003 |
| 39 | Tulsa | 6 | 1 | .0980 |
| 40 | Arizona | 3 | 3 | .0959 |
| 41 | Nevada | 6 | 1 | .0942 |
| 42 | Northern Illinois | 6 | 1 | .0911 |
| 43 | Toledo | 6 | 1 | .0883 |
| 44 | Iowa | 4 | 2 | .0747 |
| 45 | Fresno State | 4 | 3 | .0694 |
| 46 | Baylor | 3 | 2 | .0579 |
| 47 | California | 3 | 4 | .0541 |
| 48 | Tennessee | 3 | 3 | .0402 |
| 49 | Miami | 4 | 3 | .0305 |
| 50 | Maryland | 4 | 2 | .0299 |
| 51 | San Jose State | 4 | 2 | .0253 |
| 52 | North Carolina State | 4 | 2 | .0235 |
| 53 | Oklahoma State | 3 | 2 | .0189 |
| 54 | Washington | 3 | 3 | .0127 |
| 55 | Virginia Tech | 4 | 3 | .0102 |
| 56 | BYU | 4 | 3 | .0041 |
| 57 | Mississippi | 4 | 3 | .0041 |
| 58 | Troy | 3 | 3 | .0025 |
| 59 | UCF | 4 | 2 | .0008 |
| 60 | Kent State | 5 | 1 | -.0052 |
| 61 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 4 | -.0082 |
| 62 | Duke | 5 | 2 | -.0135 |
| 63 | Missouri | 3 | 4 | -.0139 |
| 64 | Ohio | 7 | 0 | -.0211 |
| 65 | New Mexico | 4 | 3 | -.0269 |
| 66 | Middle Tenn State | 4 | 2 | -.0288 |
| 67 | Temple | 3 | 2 | -.0344 |
| 68 | Utah State | 5 | 2 | -.0355 |
| 69 | Arkansas | 3 | 4 | -.0367 |
| 70 | Navy | 3 | 3 | -.0470 |
| 71 | Ball State | 4 | 3 | -.0496 |
| 72 | Bowling Green | 4 | 3 | -.0529 |
| 73 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 4 | 1 | -.0649 |
| 74 | East Carolina | 4 | 3 | -.0651 |
| 75 | Minnesota | 4 | 2 | -.0690 |
| 76 | South Florida | 2 | 4 | -.0692 |
| 77 | San Diego State | 4 | 3 | -.0786 |
| 78 | Houston | 3 | 3 | -.0790 |
| 79 | Utah | 2 | 4 | -.0869 |
| 80 | Kentucky | 1 | 6 | -.0886 |
| 81 | Texas State | 3 | 3 | -.0899 |
| 82 | Purdue | 3 | 3 | -.0938 |
| 83 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 | -.0973 |
| 84 | Syracuse | 2 | 4 | -.1039 |
| 85 | Arkansas State | 4 | 3 | -.1041 |
| 86 | Connecticut | 3 | 4 | -.1063 |
| 87 | UT-San Antonio | 5 | 1 | -.1063 |
| 88 | Indiana | 2 | 4 | -.1079 |
| 89 | North Texas | 2 | 4 | -.1342 |
| 90 | Auburn | 1 | 5 | -.1445 |
| 91 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 4 | -.1467 |
| 92 | Georgia Tech | 2 | 4 | -.1675 |
| 93 | Marshall | 2 | 4 | -.1700 |
| 94 | Air Force | 3 | 3 | -.1754 |
| 95 | Western Michigan | 3 | 4 | -.1924 |
| 96 | Miami of Ohio | 3 | 4 | -.1937 |
| 97 | Central Michigan | 2 | 4 | -.1977 |
| 98 | UAB | 1 | 5 | -.2002 |
| 99 | Virginia | 2 | 5 | -.2155 |
| 100 | Wyoming | 1 | 5 | -.2240 |
| 101 | Florida Atlantic | 1 | 5 | -.2244 |
| 102 | Illinois | 2 | 5 | -.2273 |
| 103 | Rice | 2 | 5 | -.2314 |
| 104 | Southern Methodist | 2 | 4 | -.2448 |
| 105 | Washington State | 2 | 5 | -.2482 |
| 106 | Kansas | 1 | 5 | -.2538 |
| 107 | Boston College | 1 | 5 | -.2694 |
| 108 | Southern Miss | 0 | 6 | -.2769 |
| 109 | UTEP | 1 | 6 | -.2789 |
| 110 | South Alabama | 1 | 5 | -.2803 |
| 111 | Memphis | 1 | 5 | -.2948 |
| 112 | Idaho | 1 | 6 | -.3110 |
| 113 | UNLV | 1 | 6 | -.3226 |
| 114 | Buffalo | 1 | 5 | -.3245 |
| 115 | Florida International | 1 | 6 | -.3275 |
| 116 | Army | 1 | 5 | -.3416 |
| 117 | Tulane | 1 | 5 | -.3673 |
| 118 | Eastern Michigan | 0 | 6 | -.3810 |
| 119 | Colorado State | 1 | 6 | -.3829 |
| 120 | Hawaii | 1 | 5 | -.3865 |
| 121 | Colorado | 1 | 5 | -.4091 |
| 122 | New Mexico State | 1 | 5 | -.4300 |
| 123 | Akron | 1 | 6 | -.4861 |
| 124 | Massachusetts | 0 | 6 | -.5157 |
Monday, October 8, 2012
Week 7 Predictions
I took a shot at creating a prediction algorithm based off of the HRS Rankings, and will keep track of its success by picking every Top 25 game each week. I will also provide my top 5 picks each week. Here are the picks for Week 7 based on the current line at LVH (where you can get $1 hot dogs and $2 Miller Lite drafts on Sundays in their stadium-style football viewing area).
Overall Record: 0-0-0
Last Week Record: 0-0-0
Missouri vs. Alabama - Missouri +21.5
LSU vs. South Carolina - South Carolina +2.5
Vanderbilt vs. Florida - Florida -7.5
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Texas Tech +4
Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Iowa State +6.5
Notre Dame vs. Stanford - Notre Dame -9
Indiana vs. Ohio State - Ohio State -17
Washington vs. USC - Washington +12.5
Florida State vs. Boston College - Boston College +28
Oklahoma vs. Texas - Texas +3
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville - Louisville -3
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee - Mississippi State -3
Rutgers vs. Syracuse - Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech vs. Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech +8
Boise State vs. Fresno State - Boise State -7
Michigan vs. Illinois - Illinois +23
Top Five Picks
Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech +8
Florida -7.5
Louisville -3
Mississippi State -3
Overall Record: 0-0-0
Last Week Record: 0-0-0
Missouri vs. Alabama - Missouri +21.5
LSU vs. South Carolina - South Carolina +2.5
Vanderbilt vs. Florida - Florida -7.5
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Texas Tech +4
Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Iowa State +6.5
Notre Dame vs. Stanford - Notre Dame -9
Indiana vs. Ohio State - Ohio State -17
Washington vs. USC - Washington +12.5
Florida State vs. Boston College - Boston College +28
Oklahoma vs. Texas - Texas +3
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville - Louisville -3
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee - Mississippi State -3
Rutgers vs. Syracuse - Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech vs. Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech +8
Boise State vs. Fresno State - Boise State -7
Michigan vs. Illinois - Illinois +23
Top Five Picks
Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech +8
Florida -7.5
Louisville -3
Mississippi State -3
Week 6 BCS Rankings Projections
| BCS | USA/Today | Harris (AP for now) | Computer Ranking | ||||
| Rank | Team | Statistic | Votes | Percent | Votes | Percent | |
| 1 | Alabama | .9478 | 1474 | .9993 | 1500 | 1.000 | .8440 |
| 2 | Oregon | .9111 | 1411 | .9566 | 1435 | .9567 | .8200 |
| 3 | South Carolina | .9073 | 1345 | .9119 | 1359 | .9060 | .9040 |
| 4 | West Virginia | .8655 | 1296 | .8786 | 1260 | .8400 | .8780 |
| 5 | Florida | .8617 | 1165 | .7898 | 1265 | .8433 | .9520 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | .8330 | 1152 | .7810 | 1176 | .7840 | .9340 |
| 7 | Kansas State | .7899 | 1216 | .8244 | 1217 | .8113 | .7340 |
| 8 | Oregon State | .6002 | 691 | .4685 | 873 | .5820 | .7500 |
| 9 | LSU | .5676 | 961 | .6515 | 938 | .6253 | .4260 |
| 10 | Georgia | .5389 | 761 | .5159 | 733 | .4887 | .6120 |
| 11 | USC | .5215 | 940 | .6373 | 812 | .5413 | .3860 |
| 12 | Stanford | .4862 | 577 | .3912 | 587 | .3913 | .6760 |
| 13 | Oklahoma | .4457 | 872 | .5912 | 756 | .5040 | .2420 |
| 14 | Texas | .4398 | 663 | .4495 | 711 | .4740 | .3960 |
| 15 | Florida State | .3655 | 819 | .5553 | 800 | .5333 | .0080 |
| 16 | Mississippi State | .3614 | 558 | .3783 | 450 | .3000 | .4060 |
| 17 | Clemson | .3329 | 759 | .5146 | 657 | .4380 | .0460 |
| 18 | Louisville | .3290 | 628 | .4258 | 494 | .3293 | .2320 |
| 19 | Rutgers | .3122 | 410 | .2780 | 331 | .2207 | .4380 |
| 20 | Cincinnati | .2160 | 365 | .2475 | 205 | .1367 | .2640 |
| 21 | Iowa State | .1718 | 73 | .0495 | 54 | .0360 | .4300 |
| 22 | Boise State | .1552 | 197 | .1336 | 114 | .0760 | .2560 |
| 23 | Texas A&M | .1550 | 208 | .1410 | 153 | .1020 | .2220 |
| 24 | Louisiana Tech | .0989 | 131 | .0888 | 129 | .0860 | .1220 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | .0909 | 11 | .0075 | 2 | .0013 | .2640 |
2012 Week 6 HRS Rankings
| Rank | Team | W | L | HRS Avg. |
| 1 | Alabama | 5 | 0 | .4863 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 5 | 0 | .4781 |
| 3 | Florida | 5 | 0 | .4591 |
| 4 | South Carolina | 6 | 0 | .4574 |
| 5 | Oregon | 6 | 0 | .3624 |
| 6 | Ohio State | 6 | 0 | .3519 |
| 7 | Oregon State | 4 | 0 | .3356 |
| 8 | Stanford | 4 | 1 | .3336 |
| 9 | Texas | 4 | 1 | .3323 |
| 10 | West Virginia | 5 | 0 | .3230 |
| 11 | Georgia | 5 | 1 | .3093 |
| 12 | Kansas State | 5 | 0 | .2866 |
| 13 | USC | 4 | 1 | .2518 |
| 14 | Texas Tech | 4 | 1 | .2452 |
| 15 | Iowa State | 4 | 1 | .2449 |
| 16 | Texas A&M | 4 | 1 | .2408 |
| 17 | Boise State | 4 | 1 | .2238 |
| 18 | LSU | 5 | 1 | .2170 |
| 19 | Cincinnati | 4 | 0 | .2160 |
| 20 | Baylor | 3 | 1 | .2152 |
| 21 | Mississippi State | 5 | 0 | .2016 |
| 22 | Oklahoma | 3 | 1 | .1990 |
| 23 | Michigan State | 4 | 2 | .1982 |
| 24 | Louisiana Tech | 5 | 0 | .1928 |
| 25 | Michigan | 3 | 2 | .1825 |
| 26 | Rutgers | 5 | 0 | .1636 |
| 27 | Florida State | 5 | 1 | .1625 |
| 28 | Arizona State | 4 | 1 | .1483 |
| 29 | San Jose State | 4 | 1 | .1473 |
| 30 | Toledo | 5 | 1 | .1268 |
| 31 | Penn State | 4 | 2 | .1194 |
| 32 | Tulsa | 5 | 1 | .1177 |
| 33 | Clemson | 5 | 1 | .1171 |
| 34 | Western Kentucky | 4 | 1 | .1109 |
| 35 | Arizona | 3 | 3 | .1095 |
| 36 | Fresno State | 4 | 2 | .1059 |
| 37 | UCLA | 4 | 2 | .1059 |
| 38 | Louisville | 5 | 0 | .1035 |
| 39 | Nevada | 5 | 1 | .0894 |
| 40 | Nebraska | 4 | 2 | .0880 |
| 41 | Louisiana-Monroe | 3 | 2 | .0830 |
| 42 | Northern Illinois | 5 | 1 | .0763 |
| 43 | Northwestern | 5 | 1 | .0726 |
| 44 | Miami | 4 | 2 | .0697 |
| 45 | Washington | 3 | 2 | .0687 |
| 46 | Duke | 5 | 1 | .0656 |
| 47 | TCU | 4 | 1 | .0610 |
| 48 | North Carolina | 4 | 2 | .0582 |
| 49 | Tennessee | 3 | 2 | .0580 |
| 50 | Troy | 3 | 2 | .0576 |
| 51 | North Carolina State | 4 | 2 | .0555 |
| 52 | Missouri | 3 | 3 | .0422 |
| 53 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 3 | .0366 |
| 54 | BYU | 4 | 2 | .0331 |
| 55 | UCF | 3 | 2 | .0301 |
| 56 | Iowa | 3 | 2 | .0239 |
| 57 | Ohio | 6 | 0 | .0192 |
| 58 | Wisconsin | 4 | 2 | .0186 |
| 59 | Oklahoma State | 2 | 2 | .0178 |
| 60 | Maryland | 3 | 2 | .0175 |
| 61 | California | 2 | 4 | .0087 |
| 62 | UT-San Antonio | 5 | 0 | -.0076 |
| 63 | Kentucky | 1 | 5 | -.0106 |
| 64 | Kent State | 4 | 1 | -.0206 |
| 65 | Purdue | 3 | 2 | -.0307 |
| 66 | Minnesota | 4 | 1 | -.0350 |
| 67 | San Diego State | 3 | 3 | -.0398 |
| 68 | Middle Tenn State | 3 | 2 | -.0408 |
| 69 | Mississippi | 3 | 3 | -.0476 |
| 70 | Connecticut | 3 | 3 | -.0536 |
| 71 | New Mexico | 3 | 3 | -.0705 |
| 72 | Ball State | 3 | 3 | -.0731 |
| 73 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 4 | 1 | -.0745 |
| 74 | Virginia Tech | 3 | 3 | -.0759 |
| 75 | South Florida | 2 | 4 | -.0950 |
| 76 | Wake Forest | 3 | 3 | -.0968 |
| 77 | Navy | 2 | 3 | -.1009 |
| 78 | Arkansas State | 3 | 3 | -.1010 |
| 79 | Utah State | 4 | 2 | -.1126 |
| 80 | Utah | 2 | 3 | -.1126 |
| 81 | Bowling Green | 3 | 3 | -.1129 |
| 82 | UAB | 1 | 4 | -.1149 |
| 83 | East Carolina | 3 | 3 | -.1152 |
| 84 | Central Michigan | 2 | 3 | -.1167 |
| 85 | Arkansas | 2 | 4 | -.1215 |
| 86 | Temple | 2 | 2 | -.1250 |
| 87 | Syracuse | 2 | 3 | -.1296 |
| 88 | Auburn | 1 | 4 | -.1363 |
| 89 | Indiana | 2 | 3 | -.1372 |
| 90 | Air Force | 2 | 3 | -.1410 |
| 91 | Pittsburgh | 2 | 3 | -.1462 |
| 92 | Wyoming | 1 | 4 | -.1464 |
| 93 | North Texas | 2 | 4 | -.1506 |
| 94 | Marshall | 2 | 4 | -.1514 |
| 95 | Miami of Ohio | 3 | 3 | -.1583 |
| 96 | Western Michigan | 3 | 3 | -.1634 |
| 97 | Houston | 2 | 3 | -.1658 |
| 98 | Georgia Tech | 2 | 4 | -.1684 |
| 99 | Texas State | 2 | 3 | -.1788 |
| 100 | Virginia | 2 | 4 | -.1805 |
| 101 | Washington State | 2 | 4 | -.1921 |
| 102 | Southern Methodist | 2 | 3 | -.2033 |
| 103 | Illinois | 2 | 4 | -.2132 |
| 104 | Florida Atlantic | 1 | 4 | -.2279 |
| 105 | South Alabama | 1 | 4 | -.2369 |
| 106 | Buffalo | 1 | 4 | -.2560 |
| 107 | Boston College | 1 | 4 | -.2606 |
| 108 | Memphis | 1 | 4 | -.2635 |
| 109 | Kansas | 1 | 4 | -.2820 |
| 110 | Idaho | 1 | 5 | -.3023 |
| 111 | Florida International | 1 | 5 | -.3181 |
| 112 | UNLV | 1 | 5 | -.3225 |
| 113 | Southern Miss | 0 | 5 | -.3296 |
| 114 | Army | 1 | 4 | -.3310 |
| 115 | Rice | 1 | 5 | -.3400 |
| 116 | UTEP | 1 | 5 | -.3450 |
| 117 | Colorado State | 1 | 5 | -.3523 |
| 118 | Hawaii | 1 | 4 | -.3667 |
| 119 | Colorado | 1 | 4 | -.3755 |
| 120 | Eastern Michigan | 0 | 5 | -.3912 |
| 121 | New Mexico State | 1 | 5 | -.4194 |
| 122 | Tulane | 0 | 5 | -.4529 |
| 123 | Massachusetts | 0 | 6 | -.4894 |
| 124 | Akron | 1 | 5 | -.5150 |
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