Week 13 HRS Rankings

1 TCU
2 Boise State
3 Oregon
4 Auburn
5 Ohio State
6 Stanford
7 Oklahoma
8 Oklahoma State
9 Wisconsin
10 Missouri
11 Arkansas
12 Nebraska
13 Michigan State
14 Virginia Tech
15 Alabama
16 LSU
17 Nevada
18 Texas A&M
19 South Carolina
20 Utah
21 Florida State
22 Northern Illinois
23 Hawaii
24 West Virginia
25 North Carolina State
26 Notre Dame
27 Arizona
28 Mississippi State
29 Air Force
30 Iowa
31 UCF
32 Tulsa
33 USC
34 Navy
35 Florida
36 San Diego State
37 Illinois
38 Miami
39 Maryland
40 Kansas State
41 Penn State
42 Michigan
43 North Carolina
44 Southern Miss
45 Texas Tech
46 Baylor
47 Clemson
48 Pittsburgh
49 Oregon State
50 Georgia
51 Toledo
52 BYU
53 Fresno State
54 Temple
55 Southern Methodist
56 Boston College
57 South Florida
58 Connecticut
59 Ohio
60 Arizona State
61 Washington
62 Tennessee
63 Texas
64 Miami of Ohio
65 Northwestern
66 California
67 Iowa State
68 East Carolina
69 Colorado
70 Kentucky
71 Florida International
72 Louisville
73 Georgia Tech
74 Syracuse
75 Army
76 Western Michigan
77 Troy
78 Louisiana Tech
79 Houston
80 UCLA
81 Idaho
82 Cincinnati
83 Mississippi
84 Indiana
85 UTEP
86 Purdue
87 Marshall
88 Kent State
89 Minnesota
90 Louisiana-Monroe
91 Utah State
92 Arkansas State
93 Virginia
94 UAB
95 Rutgers
96 Wyoming
97 Duke
98 Middle Tenn State
99 Kansas
100 Washington State
101 Colorado State
102 Wake Forest
103 Central Michigan
104 Florida Atlantic
105 North Texas
106 Tulane
107 Rice
108 UNLV
109 Vanderbilt
110 Ball State
111 Louisiana-Lafayette
112 Bowling Green
113 San Jose State
114 Western Kentucky
115 New Mexico State
116 Eastern Michigan
117 New Mexico
118 Buffalo
119 Memphis
120 Akron

Week 12 HRS Rankings

1 Boise State
2 TCU
3 Oregon
4 Auburn
5 Ohio State
6 Oklahoma State
7 Alabama
8 Stanford
9 LSU
10 Nebraska
11 Oklahoma
12 Missouri
13 Arkansas
14 Michigan State
15 Wisconsin
16 Virginia Tech
17 Nevada
18 Utah
19 South Carolina
20 Iowa
21 Texas A&M
22 USC
23 Miami
24 Northern Illinois
25 Hawaii
26 Florida State
27 North Carolina State
28 Arizona
29 Mississippi State
30 Florida
31 Temple
32 Air Force
33 UCF
34 Michigan
35 West Virginia
36 San Diego State
37 Tulsa
38 Kansas State
39 North Carolina
40 Navy
41 Maryland
42 Southern Miss
43 Penn State
44 Pittsburgh
45 Baylor
46 Illinois
47 Clemson
48 Notre Dame
49 East Carolina
50 Fresno State
51 California
52 Northwestern
53 South Florida
54 Georgia
55 Ohio
56 Oregon State
57 Syracuse
58 Texas Tech
59 Toledo
60 Army
61 Kentucky
62 BYU
63 Houston
64 Iowa State
65 UCLA
66 Southern Methodist
67 Arizona State
68 Connecticut
69 Louisville
70 Boston College
71 Georgia Tech
72 Troy
73 Texas
74 Tennessee
75 Florida International
76 Miami of Ohio
77 Colorado
78 Louisiana Tech
79 Rutgers
80 Washington
81 Mississippi
82 Cincinnati
83 Arkansas State
84 UTEP
85 Purdue
86 Indiana
87 Idaho
88 Marshall
89 Western Michigan
90 Louisiana-Monroe
91 Utah State
92 Kent State
93 Florida Atlantic
94 Virginia
95 Duke
96 UAB
97 Tulane
98 North Texas
99 Central Michigan
100 Minnesota
101 Colorado State
102 Kansas
103 Washington State
104 Vanderbilt
105 Ball State
106 Wyoming
107 UNLV
108 Bowling Green
109 Wake Forest
110 Middle Tenn State
111 Western Kentucky
112 San Jose State
113 Louisiana-Lafayette
114 Buffalo
115 Rice
116 New Mexico State
117 New Mexico
118 Memphis
119 Eastern Michigan
120 Akron

Week 11 HRS Rankings

1 Boise State
2 TCU
3 Oregon
4 Auburn
5 Oklahoma State
6 Ohio State
7 Nebraska
8 Stanford
9 LSU
10 Alabama
11 Utah
12 Iowa
13 Michigan State
14 Missouri
15 Oklahoma
16 Arkansas
17 Nevada
18 Wisconsin
19 Virginia Tech
20 Arizona
21 Florida
22 Mississippi State
23 UCF
24 Texas A&M
25 Hawaii
26 USC
27 South Carolina
28 Miami
29 North Carolina State
30 Florida State
31 Northern Illinois
32 Kansas State
33 North Carolina
34 Illinois
35 Temple
36 Pittsburgh
37 San Diego State
38 Air Force
39 Baylor
40 Oregon State
41 Penn State
42 Michigan
43 Navy
44 Tulsa
45 Clemson
46 Fresno State
47 Toledo
48 West Virginia
49 Maryland
50 Texas Tech
51 California
52 Ohio
53 Georgia
54 East Carolina
55 Southern Miss
56 Troy
57 Iowa State
58 Houston
59 Syracuse
60 Louisville
61 South Florida
62 Northwestern
63 Georgia Tech
64 Notre Dame
65 Kentucky
66 Army
67 UCLA
68 Texas
69 Southern Methodist
70 Arizona State
71 Mississippi
72 BYU
73 Arkansas State
74 Connecticut
75 Miami of Ohio
76 Rutgers
77 Cincinnati
78 Boston College
79 UTEP
80 Washington
81 Indiana
82 Colorado
83 Purdue
84 Idaho
85 Kent State
86 Tennessee
87 Virginia
88 Louisiana Tech
89 Louisiana-Monroe
90 Florida International
91 UAB
92 Marshall
93 Western Michigan
94 Colorado State
95 Duke
96 Florida Atlantic
97 Utah State
98 Central Michigan
99 Kansas
100 Tulane
101 Wyoming
102 Vanderbilt
103 North Texas
104 Middle Tenn State
105 Bowling Green
106 Wake Forest
107 Minnesota
108 San Jose State
109 Buffalo
110 Washington State
111 Ball State
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 UNLV
114 Rice
115 New Mexico State
116 Western Kentucky
117 New Mexico
118 Eastern Michigan
119 Memphis
120 Akron

Week 9 HRS Rankings

1 Auburn
2 Boise State
3 TCU
4 Utah
5 Oregon
6 Oklahoma
7 Missouri
8 Alabama
9 Ohio State
10 Nebraska
11 Oklahoma State
12 LSU
13 Stanford
14 Arizona
15 Iowa
16 Michigan State
17 Wisconsin
18 South Carolina
19 Arkansas
20 Mississippi State
21 Virginia Tech
22 Hawaii
23 Nevada
24 Florida State
25 North Carolina State
26 Illinois
27 Oregon State
28 Florida
29 USC
30 Baylor
31 UCF
32 Northern Illinois
33 Miami
34 Pittsburgh
35 Texas A&M
36 San Diego State
37 North Carolina
38 Kansas State
39 Air Force
40 Temple
41 East Carolina
42 Penn State
43 Toledo
44 Michigan
45 Maryland
46 Tulsa
47 West Virginia
48 Georgia
49 Iowa State
50 Syracuse
51 California
52 Clemson
53 Houston
54 Texas
55 Fresno State
56 Northwestern
57 Navy
58 Ohio
59 Texas Tech
60 Southern Methodist
61 Army
62 Georgia Tech
63 Notre Dame
64 Kentucky
65 Southern Miss
66 Troy
67 Arizona State
68 Colorado
69 South Florida
70 Louisville
71 UCLA
72 Rutgers
73 Washington
74 Miami of Ohio
75 Mississippi
76 Idaho
77 Cincinnati
78 Purdue
79 Connecticut
80 BYU
81 Virginia
82 Indiana
83 Boston College
84 Louisiana-Monroe
85 Kent State
86 Arkansas State
87 Louisiana Tech
88 UAB
89 Western Michigan
90 Colorado State
91 UTEP
92 Tennessee
93 Wyoming
94 Vanderbilt
95 Tulane
96 Florida International
97 Middle Tenn State
98 Utah State
99 Duke
100 Marshall
101 Florida Atlantic
102 North Texas
103 Wake Forest
104 Central Michigan
105 Minnesota
106 Bowling Green
107 Kansas
108 Washington State
109 UNLV
110 Buffalo
111 San Jose State
112 Louisiana-Lafayette
113 Rice
114 Ball State
115 Western Kentucky
116 New Mexico State
117 Memphis
118 Eastern Michigan
119 New Mexico
120 Akron

Prediction Results

Top 25 Picks
Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-12
Week 5: 5-10
Week 6: 7-12
Week 7: 9-11
Week 8: 13-5
Total: 48-63

Other Picks
Week 5: 0-0-1
Week 6: 5-5
Week 7: No picks
Week 8: No picks
Total: 5-5-1

Week 8 HRS Rankings

1 Boise State
2 Auburn
3 TCU
4 Missouri
5 Utah
6 Ohio State
7 Michigan State
8 Oklahoma
9 Oregon
10 Alabama
11 Nebraska
12 LSU
13 Oklahoma State
14 Arizona
15 Stanford
16 Florida State
17 South Carolina
18 Wisconsin
19 Virginia Tech
20 Iowa
21 USC
22 Nevada
23 Miami
24 Mississippi State
25 Arkansas
26 Hawaii
27 North Carolina State
28 Florida
29 Illinois
30 East Carolina
31 North Carolina
32 Baylor
33 Northern Illinois
34 Michigan
35 Kansas State
36 Oregon State
37 Air Force
38 Clemson
39 California
40 UCF
41 West Virginia
42 Pittsburgh
43 Navy
44 San Diego State
45 Georgia
46 Texas A&M
47 Temple
48 Texas
49 Southern Miss
50 Troy
51 Texas Tech
52 Toledo
53 Fresno State
54 Notre Dame
55 Iowa State
56 Maryland
57 Northwestern
58 Tulsa
59 Penn State
60 Kentucky
61 Georgia Tech
62 Houston
63 Army
64 Syracuse
65 Ohio
66 Louisville
67 Colorado
68 Cincinnati
69 Southern Methodist
70 South Florida
71 Idaho
72 Purdue
73 Washington
74 UCLA
75 Rutgers
76 Mississippi
77 Indiana
78 Arizona State
79 BYU
80 Western Michigan
81 Louisiana Tech
82 Miami of Ohio
83 Arkansas State
84 UTEP
85 Connecticut
86 Virginia
87 Florida International
88 Tulane
89 Wyoming
90 Vanderbilt
91 Tennessee
92 Boston College
93 Kent State
94 Louisiana-Monroe
95 Colorado State
96 Middle Tenn State
97 UAB
98 Wake Forest
99 Utah State
100 Central Michigan
101 Minnesota
102 San Jose State
103 Washington State
104 Kansas
105 Duke
106 Marshall
107 Buffalo
108 UNLV
109 Western Kentucky
110 Louisiana-Lafayette
111 Ball State
112 Florida Atlantic
113 North Texas
114 Rice
115 Bowling Green
116 Memphis
117 Eastern Michigan
118 New Mexico State
119 New Mexico
120 Akron

BCS Guesses

Without seeing either poll or any computer rankings...

1 Oregon
2 Auburn
3 Boise St
4 TCU
5 Michigan St
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Ohio St
10 Wisconsin

Week 8 Picks

1 Oregon vs. UCLA, Pick: Oregon -26.5
2 Boise State Bye
3 Oklahoma @ Missouri, Pick: Missouri +3
4 TCU vs. Air Force, Pick: TCU -18.5
5 Auburn vs. LSU, Pick: Auburn -6
6 LSU @ Auburn
7 Alabama @ Tennessee, Pick: Alabama -16.5
8 Michigan State @ Northwestern, Pick: MSU -6
9 Utah vs. Colorado State, Pick: Utah -30.5
10 Wisconsin @ Iowa, Pick: Iowa -6
11 Ohio State vs. Purdue, Pick: OSU -23.5
12 Stanford vs. Washington State, Pick: WSU +35.5
13 Iowa vs. Wisconsin
14 Nebraska @ Oklahoma State, Pick: OSU +5.5
15 Arizona vs. Washington, Pick: Arizona -6.5
16 Florida State Bye
17 Oklahoma State vs. Nebraska
18 Missouri vs. Oklahoma
19 South Carolina @ Vanderbilt, Pick: Vandy +12
20 West Virginia vs. Syracuse, Pick: WVU -13.5
21 Arkansas vs. Mississippi, Pick: Ark -9.5
22 Texas vs. Iowa State, Pick: ISU +20.5
23 Virginia Tech vs. Duke, Pick: Va Tech -27
24 Mississippi State Bye
25 Miami vs. North Carolina, Pick: UNC +6.5

Prediction Results

Almost did too well this week, fortunately some chaos came through for me. Bet against me soon while it's still profitable!

Top 25 Picks
Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-12
Week 5: 5-10
Week 6: 7-12
Week 7: 9-11
Total: 35-58

Other Picks
Week 5: 0-0-1
Week 6: 5-5
Week 7: No picks (visiting my girlfriend)
Total: 5-5-1

Week 7 HRS Rankings 1-120

1 Boise State
2 Oklahoma
3 Auburn
4 TCU
5 Oklahoma State
6 Utah
7 Missouri
8 LSU
9 Michigan State
10 Oregon
11 Ohio State
12 Alabama
13 Stanford
14 Nebraska
15 Iowa
16 Florida State
17 Arizona
18 Virginia Tech
19 South Carolina
20 North Carolina
21 USC
22 Nevada
23 Wisconsin
24 Mississippi State
25 West Virginia
26 North Carolina State
27 Kansas State
28 Florida
29 Air Force
30 Hawaii
31 Michigan
32 Arkansas
33 Texas
34 East Carolina
35 Miami
36 Oregon State
37 UCF
38 Notre Dame
39 Baylor
40 San Diego State
41 Northern Illinois
42 Illinois
43 Troy
44 Georgia Tech
45 Southern Miss
46 Northwestern
47 Navy
48 Clemson
49 Cincinnati
50 Kentucky
51 California
52 Pittsburgh
53 Tulsa
54 Southern Methodist
55 Temple
56 Georgia
57 Fresno State
58 Toledo
59 Purdue
60 Texas Tech
61 Texas A&M
62 Rutgers
63 Colorado
64 Army
65 Arizona State
66 Maryland
67 Washington
68 UCLA
69 Indiana
70 Iowa State
71 Mississippi
72 Penn State
73 Connecticut
74 Miami of Ohio
75 Ohio
76 UTEP
77 Louisville
78 Houston
79 Syracuse
80 Idaho
81 South Florida
82 Louisiana Tech
83 BYU
84 Vanderbilt
85 Louisiana-Monroe
86 Wyoming
87 Boston College
88 Arkansas State
89 Tennessee
90 Western Michigan
91 Florida International
92 Utah State
93 Colorado State
94 Central Michigan
95 Virginia
96 UAB
97 Wake Forest
98 Kansas
99 Louisiana-Lafayette
100 Minnesota
101 Tulane
102 Buffalo
103 Kent State
104 San Jose State
105 Middle Tenn State
106 Florida Atlantic
107 Marshall
108 Bowling Green
109 Washington State
110 Duke
111 UNLV
112 Ball State
113 Rice
114 North Texas
115 Memphis
116 Eastern Michigan
117 New Mexico State
118 Western Kentucky
119 New Mexico
120 Akron

Week 7 Picks

Top 25 Picks

1 Ohio State @ 18 Wisconsin. Pick: OSU -4
2 Oregon Bye
3 Boise State @ San Jose State. Pick: BSU -39.5
4 TCU vs. BYU. Pick: TCU -29
5 Nebraska vs. Texas. Pick: Nebraska -9.5
6 Oklahoma vs. Iowa State. Pick: Iowa State +24
Auburn vs. Arkansas. Pick: Auburn -3.5
8 Alabama vs. Mississippi. Pick: Ala -21
9 LSU Bye
10 South Carolina @ Kentucky. Pick: USC -5.5
11 Utah @ Wyoming. Pick: Utah -20.5
12 Arkansas @ Auburn
13 Michigan State vs. Illinois. Pick: Illinois +7
14 Stanford Bye
15 Iowa @ Michigan. Pick: Michigan +3
16 Florida State vs. Boston College. Pick: BC +21.5
17 Arizona @ Washington St. Pick: WSU +23.5
18 Wisconsin vs. 1 Ohio State
19 Nevada @ Hawaii. Pick: Hawaii +7
20 Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech. Pick: OSU +3.5
21 Missouri @ Texas A&M. Pick: Missouri +3.5
22 Florida vs. Mississippi St. Pick: Fla -7.5
23 Air Force @ San Diego St. Pick: AF -1
24 Oregon State @ Washington. Pick: OSU PK
25 West Virginia vs. South Florida. Pick: WVU -10.5

Listed on Ken Massey's Website!

http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

The HRS is listed 4th out of the 62 rankings because I have the 4th-highest correlation to the consensus (see the bottom of the page). Also, I have the highest Top 25 correlation to the consensus. Lovin' it.

Week 6 HRS Rankings 1-120

By popular demand...


1 Boise State 1.000
2 LSU 0.943
3 TCU 0.913
4 Oklahoma 0.895
5 Ohio State 0.888
6 Nebraska 0.883
7 Auburn 0.881
8 Utah 0.857
9 Alabama 0.854
10 Oregon 0.853
11 Oklahoma State 0.834
12 Missouri 0.821
13 Stanford 0.807
14 South Carolina 0.803
15 Michigan State 0.800
16 Nevada 0.783
17 Florida State 0.757
18 Arizona 0.731
19 Florida 0.730
20 Iowa 0.700
21 Oregon State 0.699
22 North Carolina State 0.696
23 Air Force 0.683
24 Arkansas 0.679
25 Michigan 0.668
26 West Virginia 0.658
27 Virginia Tech 0.657
28 California 0.648
29 Mississippi State 0.645
30 USC 0.624
31 Wisconsin 0.607
32 Illinois 0.595
33 North Carolina 0.594
34 Kansas State 0.568
35 Miami 0.547
36 Hawaii 0.537
37 Notre Dame 0.525
38 Texas 0.514
39 Northern Illinois 0.510
40 Baylor 0.509
41 Colorado 0.507
42 Southern Methodist 0.507
43 UCF 0.500
44 Northwestern 0.498
45 Texas Tech 0.494
46 Maryland 0.491
47 San Diego State 0.489
48 Texas A&M 0.481
49 Georgia Tech 0.481
50 Temple 0.478
51 East Carolina 0.477
52 Troy 0.472
53 Houston 0.469
54 Army 0.467
55 Southern Miss 0.460
56 Louisville 0.458
57 Idaho 0.455
58 UCLA 0.452
59 Arizona State 0.451
60 Kentucky 0.447
61 Georgia 0.445
62 Navy 0.444
63 Syracuse 0.442
64 Iowa State 0.435
65 Toledo 0.433
66 UTEP 0.429
67 Cincinnati 0.415
68 Purdue 0.410
69 Tulsa 0.400
70 Mississippi 0.398
71 Washington 0.397
72 Penn State 0.392
73 Clemson 0.392
74 Connecticut 0.391
75 Fresno State 0.389
76 Vanderbilt 0.381
77 Indiana 0.379
78 South Florida 0.374
79 Rutgers 0.355
80 Pittsburgh 0.341
81 BYU 0.320
82 Ohio 0.318
83 Wyoming 0.300
84 Miami of Ohio 0.292
85 Western Michigan 0.290
86 Virginia 0.285
87 Tennessee 0.280
88 Arkansas State 0.265
89 Central Michigan 0.244
90 Wake Forest 0.238
91 Boston College 0.235
92 Louisiana-Monroe 0.223
93 Kansas 0.209
94 Tulane 0.203
95 Louisiana Tech 0.194
96 Utah State 0.190
97 UNLV 0.178
98 Buffalo 0.173
99 Louisiana-Lafayette 0.169
100 Colorado State 0.154
101 San Jose State 0.153
102 Minnesota 0.141
103 Marshall 0.140
104 Middle Tenn State 0.129
105 Washington State 0.128
106 Duke 0.126
107 Ball State 0.114
108 North Texas 0.097
109 Bowling Green 0.086
110 Florida International 0.086
111 Florida Atlantic 0.081
112 UAB 0.070
113 Kent State 0.061
114 Memphis 0.019
115 New Mexico State -0.015
116 Rice -0.028
117 Western Kentucky -0.058
118 Eastern Michigan -0.092
119 New Mexico -0.123
120 Akron -0.176

BCS Estimation

Since the Harris poll is being released now, we have 4/6 computer rankings and both polls available to estimate the BCS. Here you go:

BCS RANKINGS
1 Boise State .919
2 Oregon .879
3 TCU .859
4 Oklahoma .846
5 Ohio State .815
6 Nebraska .770
7 LSU .761
8 Auburn .729
9 Alabama .653
10 Michigan State .595
11 South Carolina .534
12 Utah .522
13 Stanford .479
14 Missouri .366
15 Iowa .364
16 Arkansas .357
17 Arizona .330
18 Oklahoma State .326
19 Florida State .312
20 Nevada .271
21 Wisconsin .249
22 Air Force .195
23 Oregon State .168
24 Florida .167
25 Michigan .127

Remaining Unbeatens

Let's take a look at the 13 unbeaten teams left in college football, and their remaining schedules. Funny enough, Boise State, Nevada, and TCU check in with the lowest remaining schedule strength. Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Oregon have the toughest road left.

So what does this mean for the national championship race? Well first of all, it tells me that Boise State and TCU are both guaranteed to be shut out if there are 2 BCS undefeated teams left. No question. Sorry guys. Even the LSUs of the world (who cleverly schedule McNeese State and Louisiana-Monroe into the 2nd half of their schedule when there is less movement at the top of the polls) are still playing significantly harder schedules.

At most, we can have 7 undefeated teams by the end of the year. This doomsday scenario for the BCS would unfold as follows:
Big 10: #1 Ohio State and #11 Michigan State both run the table (thanks to the Big 10's unbalanced schedule and the conference's desire to fit in one extra home game against a MAC bottom-feeder, these two will not play this year)
Pac 10: #2 Oregon runs the table
WAC: The winner of Boise State - Nevada runs the table
Big 12: Only one of the four current unbeatens could conceivably remain, most likely the winner of a Nebraska-Oklahoma conference championship game
MWC: The winner of TCU - Utah runs the table
SEC: The winner of Auburn - LSU runs the table

If this were to all happen, the national title game would be Ohio State vs. Oregon. But a lot could happen to mess up the picture. Oregon and Ohio State each have a couple loseable games left. Auburn and LSU still both have to play Alabama, and even if one of them reaches the SEC Championship game they will have to beat South Carolina.

My current predictions, given everything above and below:
-Ohio State loses either @ Wisconsin on 10/16 or @ Iowa on 11/20
-Michigan State loses @ Iowa on 10/30
-Missouri loses its next 3 games: @ Texas A&M on 10/16, vs. Oklahoma on 10/23, @ Nebraska on 10/30
-Oklahoma loses to Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship
-Oklahoma State loses vs. Nebraska on 10/23, @ Texas on 11/13, and vs. Oklahoma on 11/27
-LSU loses @ Auburn on 10/23 and vs. Alabama on 11/6
-Auburn loses @ Alabama 11/26
-Nevada loses vs. Boise State on 11/26
-TCU loses @ Utah on 11/6 (yes, I may be crazy)

Undefeated teams: Oregon, Nebraska, Boise State, and Utah
National Championship: Oregon vs. Nebraska

1 Boise State
101 San Jose State 1-5
95 Louisiana Tech 2-4
36 Hawaii 4-2
57 Idaho 3-2
75 Fresno State 3-2
16 Nevada 6-0
96 Utah State 2-4
Average Rank: 68
Total Record: 21-19

2 LSU
(121) McNeese State 2-3 (Division I-AA)
7 Auburn 6-0
9 Alabama 5-1
92 Louisiana-Monroe 2-3
70 Mississippi 3-2
24 Arkansas 4-1
Average Rank: 54
Total Record: 22-10

3 TCU
81 BYU 2-4
23 Air Force 5-1
97 UNLV 1-5
8 Utah 5-0
47 San Diego State 3-2
119 New Mexico 0-6
Average Rank: 63
Total Record: 16-18

4 Oklahoma
64 Iowa State 3-3
12 Missouri 5-0
41 Colorado 3-2
48 Texas A&M 3-2
45 Texas Tech 3-2
40 Baylor 4-2
11 Oklahoma State 5-0
Average Rank: 37
Total Record: 26-11

5 Ohio State
31 Wisconsin 5-1
68 Purdue 3-2
102 Minnesota 1-5
72 Penn State 3-3
20 Iowa 4-1
25 Michigan 5-1
Average Rank: 53
Total Record: 21-13

6 Nebraska
38 Texas 3-2
11 Oklahoma State 5-0
12 Missouri 5-0
64 Iowa State 3-3
93 Kansas 2-3
48 Texas A&M 3-2
41 Colorado 3-2
Average Rank: 44
Total Record: 24-12

7 Auburn
24 Arkansas 4-1
2 LSU 6-0
70 Mississippi 3-2
(121) Chattanooga 3-2 (Division I-AA)
61 Georgia 2-4
9 Alabama 5-1
Average Rank: 48
Total Record: 23-10

8 Utah
83 Wyoming 2-4
100 Colorado State 1-5
23 Air Force 5-1
3 TCU 6-0
37 Notre Dame 3-3
47 San Diego State 3-2
81 BYU 2-4
Average Rank: 54
Total Record: 22-19

10 Oregon
58 UCLA 3-3
30 USC 4-2
71 Washington 2-3
28 California 3-2
18 Arizona 4-1
21 Oregon State 3-2
Average Rank: 38
Total Record: 19-13

11 Oklahoma State
45 Texas Tech 3-2
6 Nebraska 5-0
34 Kansas State 4-1
40 Baylor 4-2
38 Texas 3-2
93 Kansas 2-3
4 Oklahoma 5-0
Average Rank: 37
Total Record: 26-10

12 Missouri
48 Texas A&M 3-2
4 Oklahoma 5-0
6 Nebraska 5-0
45 Texas Tech 3-2
34 Kansas State 4-1
64 Iowa State 3-3
93 Kansas 2-3
Average Rank: 42
Total Record: 25-11

15 Michigan State
32 Illinois 3-2
44 Northwestern 5-1
20 Iowa 4-1
102 Minnesota 1-5
68 Purdue 3-2
72 Penn State 3-3
Average Rank: 56
Total Record: 19-14

16 Nevada
36 Hawaii 4-2
96 Utah State 2-4
57 Idaho 3-2
75 Fresno State 3-2
115 New Mexico State 1-4
1 Boise State 5-0
95 Louisiana Tech 2-4
Average Rank: 68
Total Record: 20-18

Prediction Results

Top 25 Picks
Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-12
Week 5: 5-10
Week 6: 7-12
Total: 26-47

Other Picks
Week 5: 0-0-1
Week 6: 5-5
Total: 5-5-1

Week 6 HRS Rankings

Cool thing to note: My top 10 teams are the same as the AP Poll now, just in a different order

1 Boise State 1.000
2 LSU 0.943
3 TCU 0.913
4 Oklahoma 0.895
5 Ohio State 0.888
6 Nebraska 0.883
7 Auburn 0.881
8 Utah 0.857
9 Alabama 0.854
10 Oregon 0.853
11 Oklahoma State 0.834
12 Missouri 0.821
13 Stanford 0.807
14 South Carolina 0.803
15 Michigan State 0.800
16 Nevada 0.783
17 Florida State 0.757
18 Arizona 0.731
19 Florida 0.730
20 Iowa 0.700
21 Oregon State 0.699
22 North Carolina State 0.696
23 Air Force 0.683
24 Arkansas 0.679
25 Michigan 0.668

Week 6 Picks

Since I apparently suck very hard picking Top 25 games, I'm going to start a new additional category: "Best 10."

AP Top 25 Picks
1 Alabama @ South Carolina. Pick: Alabama -7
2 Ohio State vs. Indiana. Pick: Ohio State -23
3 Oregon @ Washington State. Pick: Oregon -34.5
4 Boise State vs. Toledo. Pick: Boise State -39
5 TCU vs. Wyoming. Pick: Wyoming +35
6 Oklahoma Bye
7 Nebraska @ Kansas State. Pick: Kansas State +12
8 Auburn @ Kentucky. Pick: Auburn -7
9 Arizona vs. Oregon State. Pick: Arizona -7.5
10 Utah @ Iowa State. Pick: Utah -6
11 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M. Pick: Texas A&M +6.5
12 LSU @ Florida. Pick: LSU +7
13 Miami vs. Florida State. Pick: Miami -6
14 Florida vs. LSU.
15 Iowa Bye
16 Stanford vs. USC. Pick: Stanford -8.5
17 Michigan State @ Michigan. Pick: Michigan -4.5
18 Michigan vs. Michigan State
19 South Carolina vs. Alabama
20 Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Pick: Minnesota +22
21 Nevada vs. San Jose State. Pick: Nevada -39
22 Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette. Pick: Oklahoma State -24
23 Florida State @ Miami
24 Missouri vs. Colorado. Pick: Missouri -13
25 Air Force vs. Colorado State. Pick: Air Force -24.5

Best 10 Picks
Troy +3 @ Middle Tennessee (picked yesterday)
NC State -9.5 vs. Boston College
Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Air Force -24.5 vs. Colorado State
UCF -12.5 vs. UAB
Stanford -8.5 vs. USC
Temple +4 vs. Northern Illinois
Ball State -4.5 vs. Western Michigan
Connecticut -5 @ Rugers
Utah -6 @ Iowa State

Tuesday Night Football???

Regardless, I might as well make a pick:

Troy @ Middle Tennessee
Troy +3

Candidate for #1: Ohio State

PROS
1) Ohio State has looked very good in 4 of its 5 games, the exception being last week against Illinois. Terrelle Pryor may be the best player in the country.

2) Their win over Miami will continue to look better and better as Miami rolls through the ACC on their way to a 12-1 record and a BCS bid.

3) Sweater vests

CONS
1) Three of Ohio State's non-conference opponents:
Eastern Michigan: 0-5, 0-12 last year in the MAC
Ohio: 2-3, with wins over I-AA Wofford and Eastern Michigan
Marshall: 1-4, with its only win over Ohio

2) It's also worth pointing out that Ohio State scheduled all 4 of its non-conference games within the friendly confines of the Horseshoe. Way to challenge yourself, Buckeyes.

3) Illinois is atrocious and had a real chance to win Saturday. When Pryor went down the Buckeyes looked terrible. Any serious injury to him and their season is done.

Candidate for #1: Oregon

PROS
1) They have the most explosive offense in the nation, leading the nation in total yards per game (569.2) and scoring (56.6 points per game).

2) The defense is scary fast and much improved, giving up only 15.0 points per game and tied for 2nd in the nation with 11 interceptions. The 7 forced turnovers against Arizona State were critical.

3) LaMichael James (2nd in the nation with 712 yards in only 4 games) and Kenjon Barner (5 touchdowns in Week 1 with James suspended) rival Ingram and Richardson for the title of best backfield in America.

4) Redshirt sophomore quarterback Darron Thomas has quickly matured and replaced Jeremiah Masoli as the dual-threat QB in Oregon's spread-option system. Anyone who watched him lead the Ducks back against Stanford after falling behind 21-3 knows this kid is for real.

CONS
1) Many have said that Oregon hasn't truly been tested by its soft schedule. New Mexico and Portland State are certainly throwaway games. Beating Tennessee by 35 in Rocky Top looks more impressive after the Volunteers lost to Florida there by 14 and should have won AT LSU, though.

2) Oregon lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl last January. If the teams haven't changed too much and neither team has lost, shouldn't Ohio State be higher? (No, but it's an argument)

3) Oregon should never be #1 because Nike gives them too much money so they don't deserve it (actual argument often advanced on message boards).

Candidate for #1: Alabama

PROS
1) They won the national championship last year, started the year at #1, and haven't lost yet. Why move them down?

2) They play in the toughest conference in the nation (it burns my fingers typing those words) and are clearly the class of the SEC thus far.

3) They have the best trio of wins (vs. Penn State 24-3, @ Arkansas 24-20, vs. Florida 31-6) of any team in the nation and it isn't that close.

4) The returning Heisman trophy winner (Mark Ingram) coupled with Trent Richardson gives them arguably the best running back duo in the nation; their offense is clearly better than last year.

CONS
1) The defense returns only 3 starters from last year, and the only good passing offense they've faced to date, Ryan Mallett and Arkansas, exposed the secondary and should have won the game.

2) Nick Saban is a douche (aka I have no other legitimate arguments).

Week 5 Conference Rankings

1 SEC 56.37
2 Pac 10 52.62
3 Big 12 46.26
4 Big 10 43.61
5 MWC 29.83
6 ACC 28.55
7 WAC 22.71
8 Big East 20.35
9 C-USA 14.88
10 MAC 7.46
11 Sun Belt -2.64

Prediction Results

Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-11
Week 5: 5-10-1

Total: 19-34-1

The prediction function has nothing to do with the rankings, but I think there's something to notice here. Picking incorrectly against the spread almost 2/3 of the time is just as impressive as picking correctly, no? If I can keep this going for a few more weeks it could become very profitable to pick against me.

Week 5 HRS Rankings

1 Alabama 1.000
2 Boise State 0.965
3 TCU 0.880
4 Oklahoma 0.878
5 Ohio State 0.876
6 LSU 0.866
7 Oregon 0.857
8 Arizona 0.834
9 Oklahoma State 0.833
10 Florida 0.826
11 Auburn 0.824
12 Stanford 0.817
13 Utah 0.817
14 Nebraska 0.806
15 Michigan 0.788
16 Iowa 0.780
17 Nevada 0.759
18 Missouri 0.739
19 Kansas State 0.706
20 Miami 0.667
21 USC 0.657
22 Michigan State 0.653
23 South Carolina 0.649
24 Florida State 0.643
25 Air Force 0.623

Missing Post...

I posted a few hours ago calling Oklahoma State -3 the lock of the week, not sure what happened to it. Either way, we'll see how it turns out.

Week 5 Predictions

1 Alabama vs. Florida Line: AL -7 Pick: FL +7
2 Ohio State @ Illinois Line: OSU -20 Pick: OSU -20
3 Boise State @ New Mexico St. Line: BSU -37 Pick: BSU -37
4 Oregon vs. Stanford Line: Oregon -6 Pick: Stanford +6
5 TCU @ Colorado St. Line: TCU -30 Pick: TCU -30
6 Nebraska Bye
7 Florida @ Alabama
8 Oklahoma vs. Texas Line: OK -4 Pick: OK -4
9 Stanford @ Oregon
10 Auburn vs. UL-Monroe Line: Auburn -30 Pick: Auburn -30
11 Wisconsin @ Michigan St. Line: Pick'em Pick: MSU
12 LSU vs. Tennessee Line: LSU -16 Pick: LSU -16
13 Utah Bye
14 Arizona Bye
15 Arkansas Bye
16 Miami @ Clemson Line: Miami -3 Pick: Clemson +3
17 Iowa vs. Penn St. Line: Iowa -7 Pick: Iowa -7
18 USC vs. Washington Line: USC -11.5 Pick: USC -11.5
19 Michigan @ Indiana Line: Mich -10.5 Pick: Mich -10.5
20 South Carolina Bye
21 Texas vs. Oklahoma
22 Penn State @ Iowa
23 NC State vs. VA Tech Line: VA Tech -3 Pick: NC State +3
24 Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
25 Nevada @ UNLV Line: Nevada -21 Pick: Nevada -21

Prediction Results

Week 3: 7/20
Week 4: 7/18
Total: 14/38

Improvement at least? I would expect these to get better each week so hopefully this continues.

Week 4 Conference Rankings

1 SEC 41.96
2 Pac 10 34.78
3 Big 12 27.59
4 Big 10 25.11
5 ACC 15.89
6 MWC 12.75
7 WAC 10.16
8 Big East 9.00
9 C-USA 6.23
10 MAC 0.24
11 Sun Belt -4.26

Week 4 HRS Rankings

1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Stanford
4 LSU
5 Ohio State
6 Boise State
7 Auburn
8 Arizona
9 Utah
10 Oklahoma State
11 USC
12 TCU
13 Nebraska
14 Oklahoma
15 Nevada
16 Missouri
17 Oregon
18 Michigan
19 North Carolina State
20 Iowa
21 Kansas State
22 South Carolina
23 UCLA
24 Northwestern
25 Arkansas

Week 3 Conference Rankings

1 SEC 34.72
2 Big 12 29.20
3 Pac 10 26.86
4 Big 10 22.49
5 ACC 14.88
6 WAC 14.82
7 MWC 11.74
8 C-USA 10.55
9 Big East 8.76
10 Sun Belt 4.63
11 MAC 3.10

Prediction Results

Week 3: 7/20

I'm hoping these will get better as more data is collected. We shall see.

Week 4 Predictions

Let's see if we can do any better this week:

1 Alabama @ Arkansas. Line: ALA -7. Pick: ALA
2 Ohio State vs. EMU. Line: OSU -44.5. Pick: OSU
3 Boise State vs. OSU. Line: BSU -18. Pick: BSU
4 TCU @ SMU. Line: TCU -17.5. Pick: SMU
5 Oregon @ ASU. Line: Oregon -11.5. Pick: Oregon
6 Nebraska vs. SDSU. Line: Off
7 Texas vs. UCLA. Line: Tex -15. Pick: Texas
8 Oklahoma @ Cincy. Line: Okla -13.5. Pick: Okla
9 Florida vs. Kentucky. Line: Florida -14. Pick: Kentucky
10 Arkansas vs. Alabama
11 Wisconsin vs. Austin Peay. Line: Off
12 South Carolina @ Auburn. Line: Aub -3. Pick: Aub
13 Utah vs. SJSU. Line: Utah -31. Pick: SJSU
14 Arizona vs. Cal. Line: Arizona -6.5. Pick: Arizona
15 LSU vs. WVU. Line: LSU -10. Pick: LSU
16 Stanford @ Notre Dame. Line: Stan -4.5. Pick: Stan
17 Auburn vs. South Carolina
18 Iowa vs. Ball State. Line: Iowa -28. Pick: Iowa
19 Miami @ Pittsburgh. Line: Miami -3.5 Pick: Miami*
20 USC @ WSU. Line: USC -22. Pick: WSU
21 Michigan vs. BGU. Line: Mich -25.5. Pick: BGU
22 West Virginia @ LSU
23 Penn State vs. Temple. Line: PSU -13.5. Pick: Temple
24 Oregon State @ BSU
25 Michigan State vs. Northern Colorado. Line: Off

*Had Miami winning by 11 prior to the game last night

Week 3 HRS Rankings

To everyone accusing me of Oregon bias, here you go:


1 Alabama 1.000
2 Nebraska 0.951
3 Oklahoma State 0.901
4 LSU 0.898
5 Boise State 0.869
6 Texas 0.868
7 Stanford 0.864
8 Florida 0.810
9 Auburn 0.803
10 Oklahoma 0.790
11 Fresno State 0.775
12 Ohio State 0.773
13 Arizona 0.772
14 Utah 0.762
15 Texas Tech 0.726
16 Michigan State 0.710
17 Kentucky 0.706
18 South Carolina 0.680
19 Nevada 0.664
20 TCU 0.664
21 Oregon 0.648
22 Southern Methodist 0.647
23 USC 0.629
24 Wisconsin 0.601
25 Michigan 0.585

Rankings Explanation

A few notes about how the ranking system works:

-A team's ranking is a combination of a pure win percentage element (weighted at 30%), and a sum of ranking points accumulated over its games (70%).

-The elements that factor into a team's points for an individual game include: margin of victory (capped at +/-35), location (home or away), conference or non-conference (conference games receive a 25% bonus/penalty depending on how a team fares), opponent winning percentage, and quality of opponent (higher points awarded for opponents with higher ranking points, diminishing negative points awarded for the few opponents with negative ranking points). This last element allows the entire system to iterate through and adjust instantly. For instance, a MAC conference game will have an effect on teams that played a MAC team in non-conference, teams that played teams that played a MAC team in non-conference, etc.

-Additionally, I have placed set values on games with non-D1 teams. I believe teams should be rewarded for taking on Division 1 opponents in their non-conference schedule, and the points awarded reflect that. Teams that lose to non-D1 opponents suffer dramatically.

-Because of the iterative nature of the system, the rankings will only improve as we get further into the season and have more data to input. As such, some of these rankings should be taken with a grain of salt early in the season. This is the reason that the BCS does not put out results at the beginning of the season. Unlike the BCS, I am not concerned with credibility (because I have none).

-You will notice that there is no dependence on outside rankings in my formula. I don't believe that Alabama should be #1 and Ohio State should be #2 simply because they started the year that way in the AP Poll and they haven't lost yet.

That's pretty much it, check back regularly for updates and feel free to post any comments on the rankings or ideas for further analysis!

Week 2 Conference Rankings

1 SEC
2 Big 12
3 Pac 10
4 Big 10
5 WAC
6 ACC
7 Big East
8 C-USA
9 MWC
10 Sun Belt
11 MAC

Week 2 HRS Rankings

1- Oregon 1.000
2- South Carolina 0.951
3- Texas Tech 0.865
4- Florida 0.857
5- Alabama 0.839
6- Nebraska 0.822
7- Oklahoma St. 0.805
8- Oklahoma 0.779
9- Michigan 0.770
10- Ohio St. 0.765
11- Kentucky 0.762
12- Michigan St. 0.758
13- Auburn 0.746
14- Texas 0.709
15- Arizona 0.703
16- USC 0.699
17- Georgia 0.696
18- Utah 0.684
19- Stanford 0.666
20- Houston 0.649
21- California 0.641
22- East Carolina 0.630
23- Iowa 0.612
24- LSU 0.611
25- Texas A&M 0.599

Week 3 HRS Predictions

I hope that anyone who takes the time to read this will take these predictions with a grain of salt. With only two weeks of data (and teams like Boise State, Oregon State, etc. having only played one game), the spreadsheet could have a little difficulty separating teams out. I think it's pretty remarkable how much better the rankings look just between Week 1 and Week 2, though.

And with that, I'll debut some Top 25 predictions against the spread (the spread from Caesar's, to be exact). That's a total of 20 games. We'll review how I did next week.


1- Alabama @ Duke. Spread: Alabama -24. The pick: Duke +24
2- Ohio State vs. Ohio. Spread: Ohio State -32.5. The pick: Ohio State -32.5
3- Boise State @ Wyoming. Spread: BSU -23.5. The pick: Wyoming +23.5
4- TCU vs. Baylor. Spread: TCU -22. The pick: Baylor +22
5- Oregon vs. Portland State (non-D1)
6- Texas @ Texas Tech. Spread: Texas -3. The pick: Texas Tech +3
7- Oklahoma vs. Air Force. Spread: Oklahoma -17.5. The pick: Air Force +17.5
8- Nebraska @ Washington. Spread: Nebraska -3.5. The pick: Nebraska -3.5
9- Iowa @ Arizona. Spread: Iowa -2. The pick: Arizona +2
10- Florida @ Tennessee. Spread: Florida -16. The pick: Florida -16
11- Wisconsin vs. Arizona State. Spread: Wisconsin -14. The pick: Wisconsin -14
12- Arkansas @ Georgia. Spread: Georgia -2.5. The pick: Georgia -2.5
13- South Carolina vs. Furman (non-D1)
14- Utah @ New Mexico. Spread: Utah -23.5. The pick: New Mexico +23.5
15- LSU vs. Mississippi State. Spread: LSU -8.5. The pick: MSU +8.5
16- Auburn vs. Clemson. Spread: Auburn -6. The pick: Auburn -6
17- Miami Bye
18- USC @ Minnesota. Spread: USC -14. The pick: USC -14
19- Stanford vs. Wake Forest. Spread: Stanford -18. The pick: Stanford -18
20- Michigan vs. Massachusetts (non-D1)
21- West Virginia vs. Maryland. Spread: WVU -11. The pick: Maryland +11
22- Penn State vs. Kent State. Spread: Penn State -21. The pick: Kent State +21
23- Houston @ UCLA. Spread: UCLA -2. The pick: Houston +2
24- Arizona (see 9- Iowa)
25- Oregon State vs. Louisville. Spread: OSU -19. The pick: Louisville +19