Missing Post...

I posted a few hours ago calling Oklahoma State -3 the lock of the week, not sure what happened to it. Either way, we'll see how it turns out.

Week 5 Predictions

1 Alabama vs. Florida Line: AL -7 Pick: FL +7
2 Ohio State @ Illinois Line: OSU -20 Pick: OSU -20
3 Boise State @ New Mexico St. Line: BSU -37 Pick: BSU -37
4 Oregon vs. Stanford Line: Oregon -6 Pick: Stanford +6
5 TCU @ Colorado St. Line: TCU -30 Pick: TCU -30
6 Nebraska Bye
7 Florida @ Alabama
8 Oklahoma vs. Texas Line: OK -4 Pick: OK -4
9 Stanford @ Oregon
10 Auburn vs. UL-Monroe Line: Auburn -30 Pick: Auburn -30
11 Wisconsin @ Michigan St. Line: Pick'em Pick: MSU
12 LSU vs. Tennessee Line: LSU -16 Pick: LSU -16
13 Utah Bye
14 Arizona Bye
15 Arkansas Bye
16 Miami @ Clemson Line: Miami -3 Pick: Clemson +3
17 Iowa vs. Penn St. Line: Iowa -7 Pick: Iowa -7
18 USC vs. Washington Line: USC -11.5 Pick: USC -11.5
19 Michigan @ Indiana Line: Mich -10.5 Pick: Mich -10.5
20 South Carolina Bye
21 Texas vs. Oklahoma
22 Penn State @ Iowa
23 NC State vs. VA Tech Line: VA Tech -3 Pick: NC State +3
24 Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
25 Nevada @ UNLV Line: Nevada -21 Pick: Nevada -21

Prediction Results

Week 3: 7/20
Week 4: 7/18
Total: 14/38

Improvement at least? I would expect these to get better each week so hopefully this continues.

Week 4 Conference Rankings

1 SEC 41.96
2 Pac 10 34.78
3 Big 12 27.59
4 Big 10 25.11
5 ACC 15.89
6 MWC 12.75
7 WAC 10.16
8 Big East 9.00
9 C-USA 6.23
10 MAC 0.24
11 Sun Belt -4.26

Week 4 HRS Rankings

1 Florida
2 Alabama
3 Stanford
4 LSU
5 Ohio State
6 Boise State
7 Auburn
8 Arizona
9 Utah
10 Oklahoma State
11 USC
12 TCU
13 Nebraska
14 Oklahoma
15 Nevada
16 Missouri
17 Oregon
18 Michigan
19 North Carolina State
20 Iowa
21 Kansas State
22 South Carolina
23 UCLA
24 Northwestern
25 Arkansas

Week 3 Conference Rankings

1 SEC 34.72
2 Big 12 29.20
3 Pac 10 26.86
4 Big 10 22.49
5 ACC 14.88
6 WAC 14.82
7 MWC 11.74
8 C-USA 10.55
9 Big East 8.76
10 Sun Belt 4.63
11 MAC 3.10

Prediction Results

Week 3: 7/20

I'm hoping these will get better as more data is collected. We shall see.

Week 4 Predictions

Let's see if we can do any better this week:

1 Alabama @ Arkansas. Line: ALA -7. Pick: ALA
2 Ohio State vs. EMU. Line: OSU -44.5. Pick: OSU
3 Boise State vs. OSU. Line: BSU -18. Pick: BSU
4 TCU @ SMU. Line: TCU -17.5. Pick: SMU
5 Oregon @ ASU. Line: Oregon -11.5. Pick: Oregon
6 Nebraska vs. SDSU. Line: Off
7 Texas vs. UCLA. Line: Tex -15. Pick: Texas
8 Oklahoma @ Cincy. Line: Okla -13.5. Pick: Okla
9 Florida vs. Kentucky. Line: Florida -14. Pick: Kentucky
10 Arkansas vs. Alabama
11 Wisconsin vs. Austin Peay. Line: Off
12 South Carolina @ Auburn. Line: Aub -3. Pick: Aub
13 Utah vs. SJSU. Line: Utah -31. Pick: SJSU
14 Arizona vs. Cal. Line: Arizona -6.5. Pick: Arizona
15 LSU vs. WVU. Line: LSU -10. Pick: LSU
16 Stanford @ Notre Dame. Line: Stan -4.5. Pick: Stan
17 Auburn vs. South Carolina
18 Iowa vs. Ball State. Line: Iowa -28. Pick: Iowa
19 Miami @ Pittsburgh. Line: Miami -3.5 Pick: Miami*
20 USC @ WSU. Line: USC -22. Pick: WSU
21 Michigan vs. BGU. Line: Mich -25.5. Pick: BGU
22 West Virginia @ LSU
23 Penn State vs. Temple. Line: PSU -13.5. Pick: Temple
24 Oregon State @ BSU
25 Michigan State vs. Northern Colorado. Line: Off

*Had Miami winning by 11 prior to the game last night

Week 3 HRS Rankings

To everyone accusing me of Oregon bias, here you go:


1 Alabama 1.000
2 Nebraska 0.951
3 Oklahoma State 0.901
4 LSU 0.898
5 Boise State 0.869
6 Texas 0.868
7 Stanford 0.864
8 Florida 0.810
9 Auburn 0.803
10 Oklahoma 0.790
11 Fresno State 0.775
12 Ohio State 0.773
13 Arizona 0.772
14 Utah 0.762
15 Texas Tech 0.726
16 Michigan State 0.710
17 Kentucky 0.706
18 South Carolina 0.680
19 Nevada 0.664
20 TCU 0.664
21 Oregon 0.648
22 Southern Methodist 0.647
23 USC 0.629
24 Wisconsin 0.601
25 Michigan 0.585

Rankings Explanation

A few notes about how the ranking system works:

-A team's ranking is a combination of a pure win percentage element (weighted at 30%), and a sum of ranking points accumulated over its games (70%).

-The elements that factor into a team's points for an individual game include: margin of victory (capped at +/-35), location (home or away), conference or non-conference (conference games receive a 25% bonus/penalty depending on how a team fares), opponent winning percentage, and quality of opponent (higher points awarded for opponents with higher ranking points, diminishing negative points awarded for the few opponents with negative ranking points). This last element allows the entire system to iterate through and adjust instantly. For instance, a MAC conference game will have an effect on teams that played a MAC team in non-conference, teams that played teams that played a MAC team in non-conference, etc.

-Additionally, I have placed set values on games with non-D1 teams. I believe teams should be rewarded for taking on Division 1 opponents in their non-conference schedule, and the points awarded reflect that. Teams that lose to non-D1 opponents suffer dramatically.

-Because of the iterative nature of the system, the rankings will only improve as we get further into the season and have more data to input. As such, some of these rankings should be taken with a grain of salt early in the season. This is the reason that the BCS does not put out results at the beginning of the season. Unlike the BCS, I am not concerned with credibility (because I have none).

-You will notice that there is no dependence on outside rankings in my formula. I don't believe that Alabama should be #1 and Ohio State should be #2 simply because they started the year that way in the AP Poll and they haven't lost yet.

That's pretty much it, check back regularly for updates and feel free to post any comments on the rankings or ideas for further analysis!

Week 2 Conference Rankings

1 SEC
2 Big 12
3 Pac 10
4 Big 10
5 WAC
6 ACC
7 Big East
8 C-USA
9 MWC
10 Sun Belt
11 MAC

Week 2 HRS Rankings

1- Oregon 1.000
2- South Carolina 0.951
3- Texas Tech 0.865
4- Florida 0.857
5- Alabama 0.839
6- Nebraska 0.822
7- Oklahoma St. 0.805
8- Oklahoma 0.779
9- Michigan 0.770
10- Ohio St. 0.765
11- Kentucky 0.762
12- Michigan St. 0.758
13- Auburn 0.746
14- Texas 0.709
15- Arizona 0.703
16- USC 0.699
17- Georgia 0.696
18- Utah 0.684
19- Stanford 0.666
20- Houston 0.649
21- California 0.641
22- East Carolina 0.630
23- Iowa 0.612
24- LSU 0.611
25- Texas A&M 0.599

Week 3 HRS Predictions

I hope that anyone who takes the time to read this will take these predictions with a grain of salt. With only two weeks of data (and teams like Boise State, Oregon State, etc. having only played one game), the spreadsheet could have a little difficulty separating teams out. I think it's pretty remarkable how much better the rankings look just between Week 1 and Week 2, though.

And with that, I'll debut some Top 25 predictions against the spread (the spread from Caesar's, to be exact). That's a total of 20 games. We'll review how I did next week.


1- Alabama @ Duke. Spread: Alabama -24. The pick: Duke +24
2- Ohio State vs. Ohio. Spread: Ohio State -32.5. The pick: Ohio State -32.5
3- Boise State @ Wyoming. Spread: BSU -23.5. The pick: Wyoming +23.5
4- TCU vs. Baylor. Spread: TCU -22. The pick: Baylor +22
5- Oregon vs. Portland State (non-D1)
6- Texas @ Texas Tech. Spread: Texas -3. The pick: Texas Tech +3
7- Oklahoma vs. Air Force. Spread: Oklahoma -17.5. The pick: Air Force +17.5
8- Nebraska @ Washington. Spread: Nebraska -3.5. The pick: Nebraska -3.5
9- Iowa @ Arizona. Spread: Iowa -2. The pick: Arizona +2
10- Florida @ Tennessee. Spread: Florida -16. The pick: Florida -16
11- Wisconsin vs. Arizona State. Spread: Wisconsin -14. The pick: Wisconsin -14
12- Arkansas @ Georgia. Spread: Georgia -2.5. The pick: Georgia -2.5
13- South Carolina vs. Furman (non-D1)
14- Utah @ New Mexico. Spread: Utah -23.5. The pick: New Mexico +23.5
15- LSU vs. Mississippi State. Spread: LSU -8.5. The pick: MSU +8.5
16- Auburn vs. Clemson. Spread: Auburn -6. The pick: Auburn -6
17- Miami Bye
18- USC @ Minnesota. Spread: USC -14. The pick: USC -14
19- Stanford vs. Wake Forest. Spread: Stanford -18. The pick: Stanford -18
20- Michigan vs. Massachusetts (non-D1)
21- West Virginia vs. Maryland. Spread: WVU -11. The pick: Maryland +11
22- Penn State vs. Kent State. Spread: Penn State -21. The pick: Kent State +21
23- Houston @ UCLA. Spread: UCLA -2. The pick: Houston +2
24- Arizona (see 9- Iowa)
25- Oregon State vs. Louisville. Spread: OSU -19. The pick: Louisville +19