Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Week 8 Predictions

All Week 8 Picks
Arizona State +8 vs. Oregon
Tennessee +20.5 vs. Alabama
Florida -3.5 vs. South Carolina
Kansas State +2.5 vs. West Virginia
Notre Dame -13.5 vs. BYU
Texas A&M +3.5 vs. LSU
Oregon State -10.5 vs. Utah
Kansas +35 vs. Oklahoma
Colorado +40 vs. USC
Kentucky +27.5 vs. Georgia
Middle Tennessee State +19.5 vs. Mississippi State
Miami +20.5 vs. Florida State
Rutgers -5.5 vs. Temple
Louisville -6.5 vs. South Florida
Texas Tech +1.5 vs. TCU
Clemson -8.5 vs. Virginia Tech
Stanford +2.5 vs. California
Toledo +7 vs. Cincinnati
Boise State -28 vs. UNLV
Iowa State +14 vs. Oklahoma State
Baylor +10 vs. Texas

Top 5 Picks
Iowa State +14
Louisville -6.5
Miami +20.5
Oregon State -10.5
Notre Dame -13.5

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Prediction Results

Couldn't have asked for much more than to go undefeated in my top 5 picks against the spread in the first week. I'm sure we'll see some regression to the mean next weekend, but it's a promising start.

Week 7 All Games: 9-7-0
Total All Games: 9-7-0

Week 7 Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0
Total Top 5 Picks: 5-0-0

2012 HRS Week 7 Rankings

Rank Team W L HRS Avg.
1 Alabama 6 0 .5490
2 Florida 6 0 .4660
3 Notre Dame 6 0 .4526
4 Oregon State 5 0 .3901
5 South Carolina 6 1 .3745
6 Texas Tech 5 1 .3624
7 Oklahoma 4 1 .3561
8 Kansas State 6 0 .3551
9 Oregon 6 0 .3318
10 Ohio State 7 0 .3187
11 Texas A&M 5 1 .3178
12 USC 5 1 .2775
13 Stanford 4 2 .2717
14 LSU 6 1 .2590
15 Georgia 5 1 .2536
16 Iowa State 4 2 .2346
17 Boise State 5 1 .2225
18 Texas 4 2 .2190
19 West Virginia 5 1 .2094
20 Michigan 4 2 .1972
21 Mississippi State 6 0 .1815
22 Rutgers 6 0 .1809
23 Louisiana Tech 5 1 .1723
24 Arizona State 5 1 .1711
25 Florida State 6 1 .1710
26 Western Kentucky 5 1 .1646
27 Cincinnati 5 0 .1559
28 UCLA 5 2 .1465
29 TCU 5 1 .1440
30 Louisville 6 0 .1400
31 North Carolina 5 2 .1364
32 Penn State 4 2 .1324
33 Clemson 5 1 .1226
34 Michigan State 4 3 .1157
35 Nebraska 4 2 .1139
36 Northwestern 6 1 .1123
37 Wisconsin 5 2 .1117
38 Louisiana-Monroe 4 2 .1003
39 Tulsa 6 1 .0980
40 Arizona 3 3 .0959
41 Nevada 6 1 .0942
42 Northern Illinois 6 1 .0911
43 Toledo 6 1 .0883
44 Iowa 4 2 .0747
45 Fresno State 4 3 .0694
46 Baylor 3 2 .0579
47 California 3 4 .0541
48 Tennessee 3 3 .0402
49 Miami 4 3 .0305
50 Maryland 4 2 .0299
51 San Jose State 4 2 .0253
52 North Carolina State 4 2 .0235
53 Oklahoma State 3 2 .0189
54 Washington 3 3 .0127
55 Virginia Tech 4 3 .0102
56 BYU 4 3 .0041
57 Mississippi 4 3 .0041
58 Troy 3 3 .0025
59 UCF 4 2 .0008
60 Kent State 5 1 -.0052
61 Vanderbilt 2 4 -.0082
62 Duke 5 2 -.0135
63 Missouri 3 4 -.0139
64 Ohio 7 0 -.0211
65 New Mexico 4 3 -.0269
66 Middle Tenn State 4 2 -.0288
67 Temple 3 2 -.0344
68 Utah State 5 2 -.0355
69 Arkansas 3 4 -.0367
70 Navy 3 3 -.0470
71 Ball State 4 3 -.0496
72 Bowling Green 4 3 -.0529
73 Louisiana-Lafayette 4 1 -.0649
74 East Carolina 4 3 -.0651
75 Minnesota 4 2 -.0690
76 South Florida 2 4 -.0692
77 San Diego State 4 3 -.0786
78 Houston 3 3 -.0790
79 Utah 2 4 -.0869
80 Kentucky 1 6 -.0886
81 Texas State 3 3 -.0899
82 Purdue 3 3 -.0938
83 Wake Forest 3 3 -.0973
84 Syracuse 2 4 -.1039
85 Arkansas State 4 3 -.1041
86 Connecticut 3 4 -.1063
87 UT-San Antonio 5 1 -.1063
88 Indiana 2 4 -.1079
89 North Texas 2 4 -.1342
90 Auburn 1 5 -.1445
91 Pittsburgh 2 4 -.1467
92 Georgia Tech 2 4 -.1675
93 Marshall 2 4 -.1700
94 Air Force 3 3 -.1754
95 Western Michigan 3 4 -.1924
96 Miami of Ohio 3 4 -.1937
97 Central Michigan 2 4 -.1977
98 UAB 1 5 -.2002
99 Virginia 2 5 -.2155
100 Wyoming 1 5 -.2240
101 Florida Atlantic 1 5 -.2244
102 Illinois 2 5 -.2273
103 Rice 2 5 -.2314
104 Southern Methodist 2 4 -.2448
105 Washington State 2 5 -.2482
106 Kansas 1 5 -.2538
107 Boston College 1 5 -.2694
108 Southern Miss 0 6 -.2769
109 UTEP 1 6 -.2789
110 South Alabama 1 5 -.2803
111 Memphis 1 5 -.2948
112 Idaho 1 6 -.3110
113 UNLV 1 6 -.3226
114 Buffalo 1 5 -.3245
115 Florida International 1 6 -.3275
116 Army 1 5 -.3416
117 Tulane 1 5 -.3673
118 Eastern Michigan 0 6 -.3810
119 Colorado State 1 6 -.3829
120 Hawaii 1 5 -.3865
121 Colorado 1 5 -.4091
122 New Mexico State 1 5 -.4300
123 Akron 1 6 -.4861
124 Massachusetts 0 6 -.5157

Monday, October 8, 2012

Week 7 Predictions

I took a shot at creating a prediction algorithm based off of the HRS Rankings, and will keep track of its success by picking every Top 25 game each week. I will also provide my top 5 picks each week. Here are the picks for Week 7 based on the current line at LVH (where you can get $1 hot dogs and $2 Miller Lite drafts on Sundays in their stadium-style football viewing area).

Overall Record: 0-0-0
Last Week Record: 0-0-0

Missouri vs. Alabama - Missouri +21.5
LSU vs. South Carolina - South Carolina +2.5
Vanderbilt vs. Florida - Florida -7.5
Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Texas Tech +4
Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Iowa State +6.5
Notre Dame vs. Stanford - Notre Dame -9
Indiana vs. Ohio State - Ohio State -17
Washington vs. USC - Washington +12.5
Florida State vs. Boston College - Boston College +28
Oklahoma vs. Texas - Texas +3
Pittsburgh vs. Louisville - Louisville -3
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee - Mississippi State -3
Rutgers vs. Syracuse - Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech vs. Texas A&M - Louisiana Tech +8
Boise State vs. Fresno State - Boise State -7
Michigan vs. Illinois - Illinois +23

Top Five Picks
Rutgers -7
Louisiana Tech +8
Florida -7.5
Louisville -3
Mississippi State -3

Week 6 BCS Rankings Projections


BCS USA/Today Harris (AP for now) Computer Ranking
Rank Team Statistic Votes Percent Votes Percent
1 Alabama .9478 1474 .9993 1500 1.000 .8440
2 Oregon .9111 1411 .9566 1435 .9567 .8200
3 South Carolina .9073 1345 .9119 1359 .9060 .9040
4 West Virginia .8655 1296 .8786 1260 .8400 .8780
5 Florida .8617 1165 .7898 1265 .8433 .9520
6 Notre Dame .8330 1152 .7810 1176 .7840 .9340
7 Kansas State .7899 1216 .8244 1217 .8113 .7340
8 Oregon State .6002 691 .4685 873 .5820 .7500
9 LSU .5676 961 .6515 938 .6253 .4260
10 Georgia .5389 761 .5159 733 .4887 .6120
11 USC .5215 940 .6373 812 .5413 .3860
12 Stanford .4862 577 .3912 587 .3913 .6760
13 Oklahoma .4457 872 .5912 756 .5040 .2420
14 Texas .4398 663 .4495 711 .4740 .3960
15 Florida State .3655 819 .5553 800 .5333 .0080
16 Mississippi State .3614 558 .3783 450 .3000 .4060
17 Clemson .3329 759 .5146 657 .4380 .0460
18 Louisville .3290 628 .4258 494 .3293 .2320
19 Rutgers .3122 410 .2780 331 .2207 .4380
20 Cincinnati .2160 365 .2475 205 .1367 .2640
21 Iowa State .1718 73 .0495 54 .0360 .4300
22 Boise State .1552 197 .1336 114 .0760 .2560
23 Texas A&M .1550 208 .1410 153 .1020 .2220
24 Louisiana Tech .0989 131 .0888 129 .0860 .1220
25 Texas Tech .0909 11 .0075 2 .0013 .2640

2012 HRS Week 6 Conference Rankings

Conference Rankings
1 Big 12 .1643
2 SEC .1566
3 Pac 12 .0870
4 Big 10 .0532
5 Big East -.0083
6 ACC -.0197
7 Sun Belt -.0898
8 WAC -.0972
9 MWC -.1020
10 MAC -.1596
11 C-USA -.1945

2012 Week 6 HRS Rankings

Rank Team W L HRS Avg.
1 Alabama 5 0 .4863
2 Notre Dame 5 0 .4781
3 Florida 5 0 .4591
4 South Carolina 6 0 .4574
5 Oregon 6 0 .3624
6 Ohio State 6 0 .3519
7 Oregon State 4 0 .3356
8 Stanford 4 1 .3336
9 Texas 4 1 .3323
10 West Virginia 5 0 .3230
11 Georgia 5 1 .3093
12 Kansas State 5 0 .2866
13 USC 4 1 .2518
14 Texas Tech 4 1 .2452
15 Iowa State 4 1 .2449
16 Texas A&M 4 1 .2408
17 Boise State 4 1 .2238
18 LSU 5 1 .2170
19 Cincinnati 4 0 .2160
20 Baylor 3 1 .2152
21 Mississippi State 5 0 .2016
22 Oklahoma 3 1 .1990
23 Michigan State 4 2 .1982
24 Louisiana Tech 5 0 .1928
25 Michigan 3 2 .1825
26 Rutgers 5 0 .1636
27 Florida State 5 1 .1625
28 Arizona State 4 1 .1483
29 San Jose State 4 1 .1473
30 Toledo 5 1 .1268
31 Penn State 4 2 .1194
32 Tulsa 5 1 .1177
33 Clemson 5 1 .1171
34 Western Kentucky 4 1 .1109
35 Arizona 3 3 .1095
36 Fresno State 4 2 .1059
37 UCLA 4 2 .1059
38 Louisville 5 0 .1035
39 Nevada 5 1 .0894
40 Nebraska 4 2 .0880
41 Louisiana-Monroe 3 2 .0830
42 Northern Illinois 5 1 .0763
43 Northwestern 5 1 .0726
44 Miami 4 2 .0697
45 Washington 3 2 .0687
46 Duke 5 1 .0656
47 TCU 4 1 .0610
48 North Carolina 4 2 .0582
49 Tennessee 3 2 .0580
50 Troy 3 2 .0576
51 North Carolina State 4 2 .0555
52 Missouri 3 3 .0422
53 Vanderbilt 2 3 .0366
54 BYU 4 2 .0331
55 UCF 3 2 .0301
56 Iowa 3 2 .0239
57 Ohio 6 0 .0192
58 Wisconsin 4 2 .0186
59 Oklahoma State 2 2 .0178
60 Maryland 3 2 .0175
61 California 2 4 .0087
62 UT-San Antonio 5 0 -.0076
63 Kentucky 1 5 -.0106
64 Kent State 4 1 -.0206
65 Purdue 3 2 -.0307
66 Minnesota 4 1 -.0350
67 San Diego State 3 3 -.0398
68 Middle Tenn State 3 2 -.0408
69 Mississippi 3 3 -.0476
70 Connecticut 3 3 -.0536
71 New Mexico 3 3 -.0705
72 Ball State 3 3 -.0731
73 Louisiana-Lafayette 4 1 -.0745
74 Virginia Tech 3 3 -.0759
75 South Florida 2 4 -.0950
76 Wake Forest 3 3 -.0968
77 Navy 2 3 -.1009
78 Arkansas State 3 3 -.1010
79 Utah State 4 2 -.1126
80 Utah 2 3 -.1126
81 Bowling Green 3 3 -.1129
82 UAB 1 4 -.1149
83 East Carolina 3 3 -.1152
84 Central Michigan 2 3 -.1167
85 Arkansas 2 4 -.1215
86 Temple 2 2 -.1250
87 Syracuse 2 3 -.1296
88 Auburn 1 4 -.1363
89 Indiana 2 3 -.1372
90 Air Force 2 3 -.1410
91 Pittsburgh 2 3 -.1462
92 Wyoming 1 4 -.1464
93 North Texas 2 4 -.1506
94 Marshall 2 4 -.1514
95 Miami of Ohio 3 3 -.1583
96 Western Michigan 3 3 -.1634
97 Houston 2 3 -.1658
98 Georgia Tech 2 4 -.1684
99 Texas State 2 3 -.1788
100 Virginia 2 4 -.1805
101 Washington State 2 4 -.1921
102 Southern Methodist 2 3 -.2033
103 Illinois 2 4 -.2132
104 Florida Atlantic 1 4 -.2279
105 South Alabama 1 4 -.2369
106 Buffalo 1 4 -.2560
107 Boston College 1 4 -.2606
108 Memphis 1 4 -.2635
109 Kansas 1 4 -.2820
110 Idaho 1 5 -.3023
111 Florida International 1 5 -.3181
112 UNLV 1 5 -.3225
113 Southern Miss 0 5 -.3296
114 Army 1 4 -.3310
115 Rice 1 5 -.3400
116 UTEP 1 5 -.3450
117 Colorado State 1 5 -.3523
118 Hawaii 1 4 -.3667
119 Colorado 1 4 -.3755
120 Eastern Michigan 0 5 -.3912
121 New Mexico State 1 5 -.4194
122 Tulane 0 5 -.4529
123 Massachusetts 0 6 -.4894
124 Akron 1 5 -.5150