Top 25 Picks
Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-12
Week 5: 5-10
Week 6: 7-12
Total: 26-47
Other Picks
Week 5: 0-0-1
Week 6: 5-5
Total: 5-5-1
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Week 6 HRS Rankings
Cool thing to note: My top 10 teams are the same as the AP Poll now, just in a different order
1 Boise State 1.000
2 LSU 0.943
3 TCU 0.913
4 Oklahoma 0.895
5 Ohio State 0.888
6 Nebraska 0.883
7 Auburn 0.881
8 Utah 0.857
9 Alabama 0.854
10 Oregon 0.853
11 Oklahoma State 0.834
12 Missouri 0.821
13 Stanford 0.807
14 South Carolina 0.803
15 Michigan State 0.800
16 Nevada 0.783
17 Florida State 0.757
18 Arizona 0.731
19 Florida 0.730
20 Iowa 0.700
21 Oregon State 0.699
22 North Carolina State 0.696
23 Air Force 0.683
24 Arkansas 0.679
25 Michigan 0.668
1 Boise State 1.000
2 LSU 0.943
3 TCU 0.913
4 Oklahoma 0.895
5 Ohio State 0.888
6 Nebraska 0.883
7 Auburn 0.881
8 Utah 0.857
9 Alabama 0.854
10 Oregon 0.853
11 Oklahoma State 0.834
12 Missouri 0.821
13 Stanford 0.807
14 South Carolina 0.803
15 Michigan State 0.800
16 Nevada 0.783
17 Florida State 0.757
18 Arizona 0.731
19 Florida 0.730
20 Iowa 0.700
21 Oregon State 0.699
22 North Carolina State 0.696
23 Air Force 0.683
24 Arkansas 0.679
25 Michigan 0.668
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Week 6 Picks
Since I apparently suck very hard picking Top 25 games, I'm going to start a new additional category: "Best 10."
AP Top 25 Picks
1 Alabama @ South Carolina. Pick: Alabama -7
2 Ohio State vs. Indiana. Pick: Ohio State -23
3 Oregon @ Washington State. Pick: Oregon -34.5
4 Boise State vs. Toledo. Pick: Boise State -39
5 TCU vs. Wyoming. Pick: Wyoming +35
6 Oklahoma Bye
7 Nebraska @ Kansas State. Pick: Kansas State +12
8 Auburn @ Kentucky. Pick: Auburn -7
9 Arizona vs. Oregon State. Pick: Arizona -7.5
10 Utah @ Iowa State. Pick: Utah -6
11 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M. Pick: Texas A&M +6.5
12 LSU @ Florida. Pick: LSU +7
13 Miami vs. Florida State. Pick: Miami -6
14 Florida vs. LSU.
15 Iowa Bye
16 Stanford vs. USC. Pick: Stanford -8.5
17 Michigan State @ Michigan. Pick: Michigan -4.5
18 Michigan vs. Michigan State
19 South Carolina vs. Alabama
20 Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Pick: Minnesota +22
21 Nevada vs. San Jose State. Pick: Nevada -39
22 Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette. Pick: Oklahoma State -24
23 Florida State @ Miami
24 Missouri vs. Colorado. Pick: Missouri -13
25 Air Force vs. Colorado State. Pick: Air Force -24.5
Best 10 Picks
Troy +3 @ Middle Tennessee (picked yesterday)
NC State -9.5 vs. Boston College
Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Air Force -24.5 vs. Colorado State
UCF -12.5 vs. UAB
Stanford -8.5 vs. USC
Temple +4 vs. Northern Illinois
Ball State -4.5 vs. Western Michigan
Connecticut -5 @ Rugers
Utah -6 @ Iowa State
AP Top 25 Picks
1 Alabama @ South Carolina. Pick: Alabama -7
2 Ohio State vs. Indiana. Pick: Ohio State -23
3 Oregon @ Washington State. Pick: Oregon -34.5
4 Boise State vs. Toledo. Pick: Boise State -39
5 TCU vs. Wyoming. Pick: Wyoming +35
6 Oklahoma Bye
7 Nebraska @ Kansas State. Pick: Kansas State +12
8 Auburn @ Kentucky. Pick: Auburn -7
9 Arizona vs. Oregon State. Pick: Arizona -7.5
10 Utah @ Iowa State. Pick: Utah -6
11 Arkansas vs. Texas A&M. Pick: Texas A&M +6.5
12 LSU @ Florida. Pick: LSU +7
13 Miami vs. Florida State. Pick: Miami -6
14 Florida vs. LSU.
15 Iowa Bye
16 Stanford vs. USC. Pick: Stanford -8.5
17 Michigan State @ Michigan. Pick: Michigan -4.5
18 Michigan vs. Michigan State
19 South Carolina vs. Alabama
20 Wisconsin vs. Minnesota. Pick: Minnesota +22
21 Nevada vs. San Jose State. Pick: Nevada -39
22 Oklahoma State @ Louisiana-Lafayette. Pick: Oklahoma State -24
23 Florida State @ Miami
24 Missouri vs. Colorado. Pick: Missouri -13
25 Air Force vs. Colorado State. Pick: Air Force -24.5
Best 10 Picks
Troy +3 @ Middle Tennessee (picked yesterday)
NC State -9.5 vs. Boston College
Notre Dame -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh
Air Force -24.5 vs. Colorado State
UCF -12.5 vs. UAB
Stanford -8.5 vs. USC
Temple +4 vs. Northern Illinois
Ball State -4.5 vs. Western Michigan
Connecticut -5 @ Rugers
Utah -6 @ Iowa State
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
Monday, October 4, 2010
Candidate for #1: Ohio State
PROS
1) Ohio State has looked very good in 4 of its 5 games, the exception being last week against Illinois. Terrelle Pryor may be the best player in the country.
2) Their win over Miami will continue to look better and better as Miami rolls through the ACC on their way to a 12-1 record and a BCS bid.
3) Sweater vests
CONS
1) Three of Ohio State's non-conference opponents:
Eastern Michigan: 0-5, 0-12 last year in the MAC
Ohio: 2-3, with wins over I-AA Wofford and Eastern Michigan
Marshall: 1-4, with its only win over Ohio
2) It's also worth pointing out that Ohio State scheduled all 4 of its non-conference games within the friendly confines of the Horseshoe. Way to challenge yourself, Buckeyes.
3) Illinois is atrocious and had a real chance to win Saturday. When Pryor went down the Buckeyes looked terrible. Any serious injury to him and their season is done.
1) Ohio State has looked very good in 4 of its 5 games, the exception being last week against Illinois. Terrelle Pryor may be the best player in the country.
2) Their win over Miami will continue to look better and better as Miami rolls through the ACC on their way to a 12-1 record and a BCS bid.
3) Sweater vests
CONS
1) Three of Ohio State's non-conference opponents:
Eastern Michigan: 0-5, 0-12 last year in the MAC
Ohio: 2-3, with wins over I-AA Wofford and Eastern Michigan
Marshall: 1-4, with its only win over Ohio
2) It's also worth pointing out that Ohio State scheduled all 4 of its non-conference games within the friendly confines of the Horseshoe. Way to challenge yourself, Buckeyes.
3) Illinois is atrocious and had a real chance to win Saturday. When Pryor went down the Buckeyes looked terrible. Any serious injury to him and their season is done.
Candidate for #1: Oregon
PROS
1) They have the most explosive offense in the nation, leading the nation in total yards per game (569.2) and scoring (56.6 points per game).
2) The defense is scary fast and much improved, giving up only 15.0 points per game and tied for 2nd in the nation with 11 interceptions. The 7 forced turnovers against Arizona State were critical.
3) LaMichael James (2nd in the nation with 712 yards in only 4 games) and Kenjon Barner (5 touchdowns in Week 1 with James suspended) rival Ingram and Richardson for the title of best backfield in America.
4) Redshirt sophomore quarterback Darron Thomas has quickly matured and replaced Jeremiah Masoli as the dual-threat QB in Oregon's spread-option system. Anyone who watched him lead the Ducks back against Stanford after falling behind 21-3 knows this kid is for real.
CONS
1) Many have said that Oregon hasn't truly been tested by its soft schedule. New Mexico and Portland State are certainly throwaway games. Beating Tennessee by 35 in Rocky Top looks more impressive after the Volunteers lost to Florida there by 14 and should have won AT LSU, though.
2) Oregon lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl last January. If the teams haven't changed too much and neither team has lost, shouldn't Ohio State be higher? (No, but it's an argument)
3) Oregon should never be #1 because Nike gives them too much money so they don't deserve it (actual argument often advanced on message boards).
1) They have the most explosive offense in the nation, leading the nation in total yards per game (569.2) and scoring (56.6 points per game).
2) The defense is scary fast and much improved, giving up only 15.0 points per game and tied for 2nd in the nation with 11 interceptions. The 7 forced turnovers against Arizona State were critical.
3) LaMichael James (2nd in the nation with 712 yards in only 4 games) and Kenjon Barner (5 touchdowns in Week 1 with James suspended) rival Ingram and Richardson for the title of best backfield in America.
4) Redshirt sophomore quarterback Darron Thomas has quickly matured and replaced Jeremiah Masoli as the dual-threat QB in Oregon's spread-option system. Anyone who watched him lead the Ducks back against Stanford after falling behind 21-3 knows this kid is for real.
CONS
1) Many have said that Oregon hasn't truly been tested by its soft schedule. New Mexico and Portland State are certainly throwaway games. Beating Tennessee by 35 in Rocky Top looks more impressive after the Volunteers lost to Florida there by 14 and should have won AT LSU, though.
2) Oregon lost to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl last January. If the teams haven't changed too much and neither team has lost, shouldn't Ohio State be higher? (No, but it's an argument)
3) Oregon should never be #1 because Nike gives them too much money so they don't deserve it (actual argument often advanced on message boards).
Candidate for #1: Alabama
PROS
1) They won the national championship last year, started the year at #1, and haven't lost yet. Why move them down?
2) They play in the toughest conference in the nation (it burns my fingers typing those words) and are clearly the class of the SEC thus far.
3) They have the best trio of wins (vs. Penn State 24-3, @ Arkansas 24-20, vs. Florida 31-6) of any team in the nation and it isn't that close.
4) The returning Heisman trophy winner (Mark Ingram) coupled with Trent Richardson gives them arguably the best running back duo in the nation; their offense is clearly better than last year.
CONS
1) The defense returns only 3 starters from last year, and the only good passing offense they've faced to date, Ryan Mallett and Arkansas, exposed the secondary and should have won the game.
2) Nick Saban is a douche (aka I have no other legitimate arguments).
1) They won the national championship last year, started the year at #1, and haven't lost yet. Why move them down?
2) They play in the toughest conference in the nation (it burns my fingers typing those words) and are clearly the class of the SEC thus far.
3) They have the best trio of wins (vs. Penn State 24-3, @ Arkansas 24-20, vs. Florida 31-6) of any team in the nation and it isn't that close.
4) The returning Heisman trophy winner (Mark Ingram) coupled with Trent Richardson gives them arguably the best running back duo in the nation; their offense is clearly better than last year.
CONS
1) The defense returns only 3 starters from last year, and the only good passing offense they've faced to date, Ryan Mallett and Arkansas, exposed the secondary and should have won the game.
2) Nick Saban is a douche (aka I have no other legitimate arguments).
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Week 5 Conference Rankings
1 SEC 56.37
2 Pac 10 52.62
3 Big 12 46.26
4 Big 10 43.61
5 MWC 29.83
6 ACC 28.55
7 WAC 22.71
8 Big East 20.35
9 C-USA 14.88
10 MAC 7.46
11 Sun Belt -2.64
2 Pac 10 52.62
3 Big 12 46.26
4 Big 10 43.61
5 MWC 29.83
6 ACC 28.55
7 WAC 22.71
8 Big East 20.35
9 C-USA 14.88
10 MAC 7.46
11 Sun Belt -2.64
Prediction Results
Week 3: 7-13
Week 4: 7-11
Week 5: 5-10-1
Total: 19-34-1
The prediction function has nothing to do with the rankings, but I think there's something to notice here. Picking incorrectly against the spread almost 2/3 of the time is just as impressive as picking correctly, no? If I can keep this going for a few more weeks it could become very profitable to pick against me.
Week 4: 7-11
Week 5: 5-10-1
Total: 19-34-1
The prediction function has nothing to do with the rankings, but I think there's something to notice here. Picking incorrectly against the spread almost 2/3 of the time is just as impressive as picking correctly, no? If I can keep this going for a few more weeks it could become very profitable to pick against me.
Week 5 HRS Rankings
1 Alabama 1.000
2 Boise State 0.965
3 TCU 0.880
4 Oklahoma 0.878
5 Ohio State 0.876
6 LSU 0.866
7 Oregon 0.857
8 Arizona 0.834
9 Oklahoma State 0.833
10 Florida 0.826
11 Auburn 0.824
12 Stanford 0.817
13 Utah 0.817
14 Nebraska 0.806
15 Michigan 0.788
16 Iowa 0.780
17 Nevada 0.759
18 Missouri 0.739
19 Kansas State 0.706
20 Miami 0.667
21 USC 0.657
22 Michigan State 0.653
23 South Carolina 0.649
24 Florida State 0.643
25 Air Force 0.623
2 Boise State 0.965
3 TCU 0.880
4 Oklahoma 0.878
5 Ohio State 0.876
6 LSU 0.866
7 Oregon 0.857
8 Arizona 0.834
9 Oklahoma State 0.833
10 Florida 0.826
11 Auburn 0.824
12 Stanford 0.817
13 Utah 0.817
14 Nebraska 0.806
15 Michigan 0.788
16 Iowa 0.780
17 Nevada 0.759
18 Missouri 0.739
19 Kansas State 0.706
20 Miami 0.667
21 USC 0.657
22 Michigan State 0.653
23 South Carolina 0.649
24 Florida State 0.643
25 Air Force 0.623
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